Gao Shanwen: Bull Market Two Class Rocket Ignition Ignition

The National Bureau of statistics will hold a news conference on the third quarter national economy operation today, releasing the cumulative data in the first and three quarters of September.

In the three quarter, a series of macroeconomic data, such as GDP report, will be released. The release of key policies such as fixed asset investment, real estate investment and sales will undoubtedly send a very crucial signal to the market when easing policies are launched and the economy is heading for a stage of change.

According to statistics, nearly ten institutions predicted that the average forecast value of GDP growth in the three quarter was 7.3%.

Analysts believe that a number of factors at home and abroad caused the three quarter GDP growth slowed down, for the future economic trend, real estate will become a very important determinant.

The three quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report will be released on Tuesday, combined with the forecasts of ten institutions, the average forecast value of GDP growth in the three quarter is 7.3%.

Among the ten organizations, the top two forecasted ones were 7.5% of Shanghai securities and 7.4% of CITIC, respectively. Secondly, five institutions of Shenyin, CICC, Bank of communications, CITIC Securities and J.P. Morgan gave 7.3% forecast value; the lowest predicted value was Yin Meilin, Founder Securities and Societe Generale Securities.

In October 8th, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out at the meeting of the principal responsible persons of the State Council: the economic operation is generally maintained at a reasonable interval, and the effect of reform is constantly being released, and the new growth momentum is being generated.

"There is always a misunderstanding that 7.5% is a" bottom line ".

But I have already said that the so-called "7.5% or so" is higher and lower, and the key is whether employment has increased and income has increased.

Analysts believe that there are several main factors leading to the three quarter GDP growth decline: first, the three quarter of last year GDP foundation is relatively high; two is the real estate adjustment to the downstream industry, and drag on fixed assets investment; three is the earlier growth of faster cars, smart phones and other industries as the market saturation increases, growth momentum from high speed to high speed.

Judging from the external conditions, the global weakness has not changed as a whole, and the international growth prospects are not clear enough.

Yifu Lin, vice president and chief economist of the former world bank, believes that the goal of China's GDP growth in the future will be more appropriate at the medium to high speed between 7.0%-7.5%, which is conducive to ensuring employment and financial stability.

He pointed out: "the eighteen big proposals put forward the goal of doubling the gross domestic product and the per capita income of urban and rural residents in 2010 on the basis of 2010. The realization of the latter goal requires an average annual growth rate of 7.3% over the past 2014-2020 years.

The growth target of next year and "13th Five-Year" will be set at 7.0%-7.5%, and the growth rate will be close to 7.5% when the external conditions are relatively good. When the external conditions are relatively poor, the growth rate will be close to 7%, which is also conducive to the realization of this goal.

Previously released in the first ten days of October 2014, during the "ten day economic observation", Gao Shan Wen team said: "8, since September, 30 large and medium-sized cities commercial housing sales area has resumed.

The rescue policy, especially the improvement of financial conditions, is conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.

With the accumulation of demand and improved demand, we have a positive view on the improvement of the fourth quarter real estate market.

If the real estate sales resumption can be confirmed, the ignition of the two stage rocket is worth looking forward to.

Prior to this, Gao Shanwen has stressed on different occasions that the expansion of the real estate market volume is one of the signs of the "second stage rocket" ignition.

In addition, Shun believes that due to economic weakness and monetary policy adjustment, interbank bond yields, especially the long end interest rates, have been significantly downward, and the yield curve has been further planarization. There is still room for further reduction of the risk free interest rate centre.