Chen Jingquan: ADP Data Is Good, Non-Agricultural Is Expected To Climb New Heights.

< p > yesterday, the United States released June ADP data, of which 281 thousand new jobs increased, far exceeding market expectations, the highest since November 2012, and from this data we can see a strong recovery in the current job market. In terms of detailed data, employment in the service and manufacturing industries has increased significantly, and employment in the construction industry has also hit a new high in early 2006, with 36 thousand new jobs. < /p >
Yellen also stressed that the interest rate policy will not be changed because of the financial href= a www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "stability" /a "P", which means that the current policy to maintain long-term low interest rates and shrink QE will not change, but there is still no mention of the interest rate raised by the market in. < /p >
< p > of course, yesterday's < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > ADP < /a > the guideline for the market trend is much more than data increase simply. From the market reaction, the US stock index rises, the US dollar index rises, the decline of the long-term treasury bond yield is all the signal of the expansion of the risk sentiment, but it reflects totally different QE emotions in the currency exchange trend. Although most currencies have stabilized after that, we still find that the last change of the market has not yet been completed. < /p >
In May, PPI data of P < a < href= > http:// > www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > Euro > /a > continued to decline year by year, and the prospect of inflation recovery is still weak. For the euro, today's ECB conference will be the focus of this month, but from the current situation, it is difficult to make adjustments to the actual actions in the early July, and the current progress of the TLTRO and ABS purchase plans launched by the last conference on interest rates is expected to be announced at this meeting. < /p >
< p > of course, after the announcement of one month's easing, the data in the eurozone are still weak, which will also increase the pressure on the ECB to continue to expand from then on. However, it is imperative to do a good job in asset purchases before it can push the market forward. In addition to the eurozone, the data in Britain are also good. London real estate prices rose 25.8% in the two quarter, the biggest increase since 1987, and the unusual activity in the real estate market will also cause the British central bank to consider the regulation ahead of time, and the change of monetary policy will be further strengthened in the market. < /p >
< p > < strong > technical brief suggestion: < /strong > < /p >
The impact of P ADP data is still a change in market sentiment which first falls and then rises. QE sentiment will have a more direct impact on the market when the data is released, and then the risk preference will be gradually transmitted to the currency in the US market. < /p >
< p > Gold: 1325 after the early break, wait for the withdrawal of the 1318 downward resistance. The stabilization of this position is the beginning of the gold going up again. If the position is below 1310, the test will be fulfilled. < /p >
< p > silver: at present, the intensity of silver is stronger than that of gold, and the downward resistance of 20.9 is not broken down, and the upward resistance of the Japanese line is expected to continue to be tested above 21.2. < /p >
< p > Euro: 1.3675 yesterday's closing means that the short-term strength is pointing downward, and the resistance of the downward 1.3620 is the key resistance to further decline within the day. Breaking down the euro will withdraw 1.3580, and the stabilization strength will be expected to re test 1.3700 < /p >
< p > pound: the uplink strength of the pound is still maintained, and 1.7137 of the tests will appear first. The stabilization of this position means that the short-term strength of the pound will continue, and the top 1.7170 will continue to test at the top. < /p >
< p > Australian Dollar: a break in early trading means a weak intensity in the short term. The key to the daily line of the 0.9380 test is that if the position falls further, the space for the Australian dollar will expand to 0.9320. 0.9430 < /p >
< p > Japanese Yen: 101.7 of the stabilization period, the short-term yen upward strength is maintained, and it is expected to continue to test 102.2 within the day. < /p >