Guan Tao: Normal Combination Of RMB Rise And Fall

< p > when the RMB exchange rate tends to be balanced and reasonable, the Chinese government is speeding up the exchange rate reform.

This is the subjective influence factor mentioned by Guan Tao.

The micro market is different from the appreciation period of RMB in the past. Now the market has a higher appreciation pressure but no appreciable appreciation expectation, and the market environment has changed dramatically.

And market supply and demand is only an important factor affecting the exchange rate trend, not the only factor.

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"P > < a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "> tube Tao < /a > quoted data. In the end of 3, the implied volatility of the a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "> RMB > /a > exchange rate reflected in the options market in the end of 6 months was about 2.5%. The average fluctuation rate of the 24 major developed and emerging markets in the same period was 9.5%.

Tube Tao is further called "/p".

< p > "it is generally believed that if the stock index rises or falls by 20%, it can only be called a bull market or bear market, and it cannot make a fuss about the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate". It should not over interpret the short term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, and "it should not be applied to China's exchange rate policy."

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< p > tube Tao explains the recent fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, which is derived from various internal and external factors, including China's slow economic growth this year, the import and export downturn, the exposure of credit default incidents, and the accelerated withdrawal of the Federal Reserve QE.

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< p > Guan Tao mentioned in particular that the RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > fluctuation increased the arbitrage paction which affected the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi in the early stage, and formed the crowding out effect, and released the demand for closing the purchase of foreign exchange, which in turn increased the fluctuation of exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow.

In addition, the pfer of market trading strategy from short to us dollar to short dollar will also suppress the appreciation of RMB.

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< p > Guan Tao believes that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on cross-border capital flows: enterprises are more willing to increase their willingness and motivation to buy foreign exchange in the future.

The authorities are happy to see such changes and have certain affordability.

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< p > Guan Tao admitted that some foreign exchange loans or foreign debts borrowed from abroad may suffer exchange losses because of this exchange rate fluctuation.

This is because enterprises do not effectively hedge the exposure risk of foreign currency liabilities, but the loss "gives a vivid lesson to the market". In March, the favorable balance of forward sales and foreign exchange fell sharply because the enterprises that learned the lessons began to hedge foreign currency liabilities and increase the long-term purchase of foreign exchange.

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< p > Guan Tao believes that in line with the increase in the two-way floating elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, the government will do four things in the future: < /p >

< p > 1, enrich the trading products, increase the main body of the paction, improve the trading mechanism, expand the depth and breadth of the foreign exchange market, and increase market liquidity; < /p >

< p > 2, adhere to the principle of marketable products, maintain fair trade, urge banks to fully disclose the risks of derivatives trading, and not exaggerate the function of products; < /p >

< p > 3, guiding enterprises to establish a correct sense of exchange rate risk, and actively manage the risk of two-way fluctuation of exchange rate, so as to help enterprises realize that exchange rate avoidance is a means of managing risks, not a means of making money, and excessive hedging is actually speculation.

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< p > 4, improve data pparency and speed up the frequency of data disclosure.

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Below P, we can see the US dollar's spot rate on the offshore renminbi since mid February.

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