US Cotton Supply Is Tight, Zheng Cotton Is Weak And Hard To Return.

< p > Intercontinental Exchange ICE cotton rose 25 to two years high, compared to the United States cotton, Zheng cotton futures appear weak and difficult to return. However, analysts pointed out that the space for the sharp decline of Zheng cotton futures price has been limited. When the so-called "bad profit" cotton direct subsidy policy was digested, the price of zhengmian would pick up slightly in the second quarter. < /p >
< p > < strong > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > cotton > /a > inventory falls to historical lows < /strong > /p >
< p > the US Department of agriculture (USDA) report predicts that the US "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "cotton yield > /a" will be 12 million 870 thousand packages (480 pounds per pack) this season, which is about 2.5% less than the previous estimate of cotton output in the 2013/14 year of 13 million 190 thousand packs. This will lead to the US cotton inventory of about 2 million 500 thousand packs at the end of July, the lowest since 1990/91. < /p >
< p > the tight supply of US cotton has been an important factor supporting the recent contract. It is expected that the recent US cotton contract in the near future will still maintain a strong pattern. However, the rebound from the end of November 2013 has little to do with China, and in the final analysis, it is related to its own stock. < /p >
< p > in addition, the recent weekly export sales figures show that the US cotton export situation is good. As of March 13th, the US cotton total net signed 13/14 cotton accounted for 91% of the total export volume, close to the five year average level of 93%, while 12/13 only 89%. The shipment volume is only 661 thousand tons, less than the five year average. < /p >
In the year of P > 2013/14, the sales situation of the US cotton market is better, so it can also be independent in China. < /p >
< p > from a technical point of view, the May contract has broken through the previous shock interval, and the price has risen to about 95 cents, because the fundamentals have been difficult to see the price of American cotton in space. So, at the moment, it is necessary to give the signal to the technology side. In addition, the short term or impact on the US cotton is the new year's estimate of the planting area announced at the end of the month, so even if we want to enter the market, we will have to wait for the report to come out before making a decision. < /p >
< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > ZHENG Mian < /a > "fatigue" to go stock < /strong > /p >
< p > compared with the US cotton price rise, Zheng cotton continued to fall, which was affected by the direct subsidy policy of cotton, and the price of Zheng cotton fell more than 17% this year. On the spot, on the 25 day, China's cotton price index 3128B cotton newspaper was 19414 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day. < /p >
< p > industry insiders say that after only three years of open storage, China's acquisition companies have already lost their sales channels. Meanwhile, the rapid development of machine picked cotton has led to a decline in cotton quality in Xinjiang. The cash spot trade mode is lagging behind the letter of credit model of imported cotton. After the new year's policy of supporting the storage and purchase has been lost, the domestic cotton price will be close to the international cotton price under the pressure of sales, and it is not ruled out that the domestic cotton price is lower than the cost of imported cotton. < /p >
< p > domestic cotton is affected by Pang great power stock inventory and future subsidy policy, and both short-term and long-term prices are hard to come back. Recently, it was reported that the policy of dumping and storage began to be adjusted in April 1st. First, the reserve price was reduced to 17250 yuan per ton. < /p >
< p > industry sources have revealed that the current stock of cotton in the national reservoir has nearly 10 million tons. "In the past years, the state began collecting and storing, basically 95% of the cotton production was sent to the State Reserve." However, the price of Zheng cotton fell sharply, and the price would pick up slightly after the bad profit. < /p >