China's Import And Export Data In The First Two Months Are Like Roller Coaster.

The import and export data of < p > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Customs General Administration < /a > showed that in February, China's exports decreased by 20.4% over the same period last year, the lowest growth rate since September 2009, and the deficit of US $22 billion 980 million (139 billion 790 million yuan). From the expected growth in January to less than expected growth in February, the roller coaster of China's export data appeared in the first two months of this year. < /p >
Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs, "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "," P ", said that the Spring Festival has great impact on the production and foreign trade activities of foreign trade enterprises. < /p >
This year's Spring Festival holiday, on the 6 th of January 31st, has taken into account the time needed for resumption of production and business operations after the holidays. The export commodities that should have been exported in February were advanced to January, resulting in an increase in the scale of exports in January and a year-on-year increase in P, while the export volume in February decreased correspondingly and the growth rate was reversed in the same period of January 31st. This contrast can easily lead to a statistical deficit. < /p >
< p > Oriental securities issued research report that, in previous years, demand for orders will rush ahead of the festival. Last year's Spring Festival was in February 10th. The demand for trade during the Spring Festival was from 1 to 9 days in February and apportioned in January. This year's Spring Festival is in January 31st and during the Spring Festival, the trade demand is mainly borne by January, leading to the phenomenon of the phenomenon of peak shifting on trade data. Imports grew 10.1% over the same period last month, basically unchanged from last month. In the short term, export growth will still be suppressed. < /p >
Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > from 6.04. Yesterday, the central parity price dropped by 111 basis points. The market generally speculated that the Central Bank of China had intervened in order to beat the expectation of appreciation. This will help export oriented industries, including textiles, clothing, toys, shoes and caps, and so on. However, an export oriented clothing manufacturer said: "we haven't seen the benefits of depreciation." < /p >
< p > Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenyin world, also said: "as China's cost advantage is gradually disappearing, exports will probably not improve significantly as it did in January". < /p >
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During the two sessions this year, Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, said that China is confident that the target of 7.5% will be achieved in the growth rate of foreign trade this year. This goal is lower than last year's growth of 8%, which is the same as the expected growth rate of GDP in the whole year. Shen Danyang also said that the overall judgment of this year's foreign trade situation remained unchanged. < /p >
Less than P, however, the sharp decline in exports in February this year also accompanied the rapid devaluation of the renminbi. Since February 18th, the RMB exchange rate has dropped sharply, which is contrary to the expectation that the RMB will "break six" this year. < /p >
P, chief economist of Communications Bank (3.64, 0.01, 0.28%), thinks that this is due to the large scale trade deficit, which has changed the supply-demand relationship of RMB exchange rate in the short term, which has led to a phased devaluation of the renminbi. Two, it is possible that there will also be official homeopathy to weaken the RMB exchange rate, thereby breaking the expectation of unilateral appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. He also said that the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to easing the pressure of export enterprises. < /p >