RMB Appreciation Expectations Weaken, Positive Textile Exports

< p > after a rapid appreciation in the two quarter, the RMB declined slightly against the US dollar for two consecutive weeks.

Market institutions believe that the State Council recently put forward "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level" in the foreign trade support policy, which means that the appreciation of the renminbi is weaker than before. It may be favorable for the export oriented industries such as a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile > /a, and the exchange rate "dividend" of aviation, paper and other industries may shrink.

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< p > < strong > textile enterprises feel significantly less than /strong > /p >

The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate affects the listed companies through the import and export chain, and the expectation of RMB appreciation is weakened. The textile industry may feel more clearly. P

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< p > China's textile < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > enterprises are mainly SMEs, and are very sensitive to the RMB exchange rate.

According to market participants, the profit rate of cotton textile, wool textile and garment industry decreased by 3.19%, 2.27% and 6.18%, respectively, for each appreciation of 1%.

According to statistics from the General Administration of customs, China's textile exports amounted to $511.56 in the 1-6 months of 2013, an increase of 10.10% over the same period last year. In June, textile exports amounted to 92.25 US dollars, a decrease of 5.04% compared to the same period, and the textile industry was flat.

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Less than P, the RMB exchange rate has dropped slightly in recent years, which has improved the situation of textile foreign trade enterprises.

Analysts pointed out that the continuous appreciation of the renminbi has great impact on textile and other export enterprises.

High level emphasis on exchange rate stability, which means that the appreciation of the renminbi may be weakened, is undoubtedly beneficial to enhance the competitiveness of the textile industry and improve the current situation of textile foreign trade downturn.

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< p > Mo Ni research report said that the "certainty" risk of US interest rate and the downside risk of China's interest rate "uncertainty" will lead to narrowing the risk of Sino US interest spread. This also supports the judgement that the RMB will probably have a phased depreciation in the three quarter.

Monita pointed out that as China's economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year and asset prices limit the central bank's interest rate reduction space, the value of the RMB devaluation can be controlled.

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< p > CIC securities also pointed out that the devaluation of the RMB, the key to demand for exports or demand, and if exports rely on devaluation, it is likely to cause a chain reaction in the world, and export enterprises can not benefit from it at last.

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In the past 8 years, the RMB has appreciated 34% against the US dollar in the past 34% years.

Today, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken, some analysts said that these industries "good days" may gradually end, investors should pay attention to changes in the relevant sectors in the near future.

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< p > aviation is a typical foreign exchange liability industry, especially the US dollar liabilities. It is estimated that the average liabilities of us airlines account for 70% of all liabilities.

Airlines have a large number of aviation equipment financing lease liabilities, each year to pay a certain amount of interest costs and principal.

Related information shows that RMB appreciation per 1%, airlines gross margin increased by 0.5%.

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< p > analysts believe that if the renminbi is depreciated from appreciation, it will not be conducive to the aviation sector.

First, exchange rate depreciation will increase its asset liability ratio and make it lose foreign exchange earnings; secondly, increase procurement costs and overseas costs, including security inspection fees, overseas route fees and office fees for overseas offices.

In addition, as the cost of aviation fuel accounts for more than 30% of the total cost of airlines, the depreciation of the RMB will enable airlines to bear the pressure of aviation fuel cost growth.

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< p > data show that the paper industry is very sensitive to the change of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB exchange rate < /a >.

According to CITIC analysis, pulp and paper pulp and paper industry 70% rely on imports and high dependence on foreign trade. If the depreciation of the RMB will lead to the rise in the actual price of imported raw materials, and the increase in the cost of repayment of foreign debt by paper companies, it will be bad for paper and paper packaging listed companies.

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The downward trend of RMB P will lead to a revaluation of the value of assets denominated in Renminbi, and the financial industry, as the most concentrated sector of capital, may also be affected theoretically in the tide of RMB value change.

Analysts pointed out that China's banking industry is basically domestic business. Most banks have little foreign currency position except bank of China.

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