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Textile Enterprises Need To Be Cautious In Storing Materials.

2013/8/23 19:01:00 10

Cotton Industry Cotton Industry Cotton Spinning Industry Cotton Price

Since P 2013, the European economic situation is still not optimistic. Although some economic indicators are showing signs of stabilization, the overall situation is still in the doldrums. Coupled with the Cyprus crisis and the chaos of Italy's political situation, the market once worried about the debt repayment of European powers. Since June, manufacturing data in the euro zone have risen and employment has improved, and consumer confidence has also risen. On the whole, the overall economic situation of the euro area is slowly improving, but its tendency to get rid of negative growth is still a long way to go. 
 GDP slows down and the consumer market rises steadily. /p >
China's GDP growth slowed to 7.5% in the two quarter, but the consumer market continued to pick up steadily, due to the decline in exports and the sluggish industrial investment. Due to the slowdown in domestic economic growth, a large number of capacity overcapacity in the field is seriously inadequate, and domestic PPI growth has been negative for 16 consecutive months. The industrial sector has fallen into serious deflation. In the next few days, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > manufacturing industry < /a > is hard to improve effectively. At present, the main factor of stabilizing the economy comes from consumption. It has maintained a steady recovery in recent months, but has not yet reached the level of growth before. The steady growth of consumption is conducive to domestic economic transformation and ensures that the economy does not fluctuate significantly. 
In the second half of 2013, P will be held in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. This is the first third Plenary Session of our country since the governance of the new national leader, or it will set a tone for the direction of China's development in the next ten years. In the third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee 1978 and the third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee in 2003, it has become an important milestone in China's economic reform. Now the masses are eagerly looking forward to the convening of the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the CPC. We expect that the new policy of reform will play a positive role in the future economic development of our country. 
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 < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/ > cotton inventory < /a > consumption ratio > New /strong > > /p >
 since 2000, the trend of the global cotton inventory consumption ratio predicted by USDA (US Department of Agriculture) has seen a continuous rise in recent years since the sharp increase in global cotton production in 2011/12 led to a sharp rise in inventory consumption. Since 2013, the global a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton > /a > initial inventory has remained at a high level. Although the cotton planting area is expected to decrease in the new year, the output is expected to increase, while the global economic situation has not yet been significantly improved and the demand is still weak. Therefore, the USDA7 supply and demand forecast predicts that the global cotton consumption and consumption ratio will reach 84% in the year of 2013/14, an increase of 6% over the same period last year, and the global cotton supply and demand easing situation will further escalate. 
 from USDA's prediction of China's cotton consumption and consumption ratio, since the beginning of 2011/12, the cotton consumption and consumption ratio of China has risen sharply, due to the increase of cotton production and the weakening of downstream demand. In 2013, China's cotton sowing area dropped significantly compared with the same period last year, and the expected output has the possibility of continuous growth. However, it is expected that the consumption will continue to decrease due to the factors of a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile > /a > export situation, and consumption is expected to continue to decrease. As a result, the inventory consumption ratio in the USDA7 supply and demand report will be as high as 163%, which is more severe than the demand. Although the government has passed the storage and control of cotton market, because China is a part of the WTO organization, the cotton price will be in line with the international market sooner or later. 
 imported cotton impacted the domestic market /p >
Since P > 2013, the price of import port is basically consistent with the trend of China's cotton price index (grade 328), but the trend began to deviate in June. The main reason is that China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > cotton imports < /a > quota has been issued in succession, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to import cotton has been greatly improved. As of July 23rd, the price of imports to port was 97.26 cents / pound, that is, after tax, the price was 16212 yuan / ton, while the spot price of domestic cotton was 19244 yuan / ton, and the price difference was as high as 3000 yuan / ton. Imported cotton is often of high quality, and the price of India cotton is much lower than that of the average price. Therefore, the impact of imported cotton on the cotton market in China is not negligible compared with the competitive advantage of domestic cotton. 
 from the import situation of cotton in the past 5 years, China's cotton imports in 2013 were lower than that of the same period in 2012, and showed a slowdown. In the first half of 2013, China's cotton imports totaled 2 million 411 thousand and 800 tons, down 21% from the same period last year, but still higher than the average level in the past 5 years. The main reason is that in 2012, our government collected more than 600 tons of cotton, and China's cotton stocks were sufficient, which was affected by the slow global economic recovery. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > textile > /a > demand decreased, plus positive consumption season. Therefore, textile mill purchase raw materials also tended to be cautious. 
 reserve control rhythm is appropriate 
 from the results of the transaction, as of March, the 31 Japanese purchasing and storage work ended, the total turnover was 6 million 506 thousand tons, and the transaction price was maintained at the reserve price of 20400 yuan / ton. The open purchase and storage effectively stabilized the price of China's cotton market. In April 10th, the plan for temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2013 was released on schedule, but the price of temporary storage and storage remained unchanged at 20400 yuan / ton. In the context of natural rise in the cost of raw materials and labor costs, the price did not arouse the enthusiasm of investors in the market. At present, the market rumors that the cotton quality requirements of cotton purchase and storage in 2013/14 will be raised or not, so that the cotton that meets the demand for storage will be reduced, and the cotton that will flow into the market will increase. As early as the beginning of July, under the background of excessive price spread at home and abroad, market participants have begun to consider whether the government will stabilize cotton prices through the purchase or storage or by planting subsidies to cotton farmers. Therefore, whether the policy of purchasing and storing can be launched in 2014, if the abolition of cotton prices will return to international prices, there is still a certain risk. 
 China's 2013 a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > cotton throwing storage < /a > began in January 14th, throwing cotton part of 2011, 2012 cotton, and some imported cotton, as of July 23rd, China's cotton throwing storage totaled 3 million 253 thousand tons, throwing cotton storage average price 328 fold cotton price basically maintained at the vicinity of 19000~19500 yuan / ton interval, the price shock interval continued to fall, mainly affected by the weakening of spot prices, hit the enthusiasm of the market to buy cotton stocks, the cautious sentiment of the market outlook warming. 
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 2013/14, the new cotton output variation /p >
Since the first half of this year, the number of American non farm payroll data, consumer confidence index, manufacturing index and so on is mixed. The US economic growth rate has picked up, but when the Federal Reserve will announce its withdrawal from QE3, the market is always worried. If the US firmly withdraws from the quantitative easing monetary policy, it will cause a certain setback to the market and pressure the commodity market. 
The debt of the euro area countries has been postponed. The central bank has maintained its existing policy. The euro zone July PMI data is better than expected, indicating that the European economy continues to recover, and the second quarter of GDP is about to be announced. It is recommended to pay attention to it. 
Since P has been affected by the decline in exports and the sluggish industrial investment this year, China's economic growth has continued to decline, but the consumer market continues to rise steadily. The Third Plenary Session of the eighteenth Central Committee will be held in the second half of this year. Whether the conference can introduce more effective control measures will directly affect the confidence and direction of the domestic commodity market. 
Since P 2013, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts in Zhengshang's business has shown a rapid downward trend and low consolidation trend. At the beginning of the year, the number of warehouse receipts was around 500, while in the competition of better prices of government procurement and storage, enterprises were more inclined to pay for storage. The number of warehouse receipts continued to decrease, to the beginning of April, and less than 100. In May, the number of warehouse receipts gradually recovered, and returned to 200 in late July. However, in September, the possibility of the new cotton market listing and the state's purchasing and storage policy is very large. Therefore, there will be a contradiction between the purchase and storage and the delivery of the warehouse receipt. If the warehouse receipts are insufficient in quantity, it is possible that there will be a risk of closing the warehouse at the time of delivery, which is not conducive to the development of the futures market. It is suggested that investors should keep an eye on cotton warehouse receipts in a timely manner so as to adjust their positions in time. 
 according to the results of the sampling survey of 13 cotton producing counties in China by the < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > Cotton Association < /a > June, the main planting area in the main cotton producing area of 2013/14 is about 71 million 170 thousand mu, which is about 4.7% less than that of the same caliber area, and the output is 7 million 220 thousand tons, a decrease of 4% over the same period. Starting from July, the cotton growing areas will gradually enter the middle and late stages of growth, which is the key period to protect buds, flowers and Bolls and pest control. By the end of July, cotton growth in Xinjiang cotton region should be deviant. In the the Yellow River basin, more cotton would cause lodging and insect infestation in some areas due to excessive rainfall, which would affect output in the later stage. 
 June 28th, USDA published the report on the final acreage of the US cotton in the year of 2013/14, showing that the actual planting area of the United States cotton in the 2013/14 year is about 10 million 251 thousand acres, 18.6% less than that in 2012/13, of which the land cotton area is 10 million 25 thousand acres, a decrease of 18.7% compared with that of the previous year; the Pima cotton area is 226 thousand acres, which is 13.4% lower than that of the previous year. The upland cotton area: the largest cotton area in the southwest cotton area is expected to be 5 million 880 thousand acres, a decrease of 17.5% over the same period last year. The area of Dezhou is 6 million 700 thousand acres, a decrease of 16% compared with the same period last year. It is mainly affected by the drought disaster this year, which has affected the growth of local cotton. The central and Southern cotton area is expected to be 1 million 300 thousand acres, a decrease of 37.9% over the same period, and a big reduction. Since the planting of cotton in 2013/14, the weather has been poor since then. As of July 22nd, the United States cotton knot flocculation rate was 27%, significantly lower than the same period last year 47% level. 
"P >, we can see that the shrinkage situation of cotton in the United States and China has basically been established in 2013/14, but the weather is generally deviant, so the output situation is still variable, which will affect the cotton price trend. 
 from a technical point of view, the market is concerned about whether the Zheng cotton index can get strong technical support in the golden section 62% withdrawal 19826 yuan / ton integer mark, and there is a possibility of a higher rebound. The price of 20400 yuan / ton is a key psychological pressure line. If the cotton production is clear this year and the price support of the storage and purchase is supported, the cotton price has the possibility of breaking through the line, and the upper pressure level will see 38% 38% yuan of the golden section analysis. After that, Zheng cotton shock interval will be near the 19826~20768 yuan / ton interval. 
Generally speaking, in the second half of 2013, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > ZHENG cotton < /a > or will continue the pattern of wide shock finishing (near 19826~20768 yuan / ton interval), or the center of gravity will shift upward.