We Are Worried About The Trend Of Small And Medium Enterprises.

News background: at the beginning of this year, after the rumors that "thousands of shoe enterprises closed" and "twenty thousand Hong Kong enterprises or closed down" in the Pearl River Delta earlier this year, the news of "collapse of the Yangtze River Delta enterprises" in the past two weeks has been raging.

In Zhejiang, the birthplace of China's private economy, Wenzhou is rumoured that "20% of the enterprises have gone bankrupt". The export growth of Yiwu's small commodity market has been greatly reduced, and the leading group of Taizhou's leap Group is deeply bogged down by hundreds of millions of Yuan's debt quagmire.

As a manifestation of economic vitality, the current situation of SMEs can not help worrying about the future of China's economy.

Since the 4 of this month, the central leadership has conducted intensive research in coastal provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Shanghai.

The extroversion economy and the survival of enterprises are one of the focuses of this investigation.

There is no doubt that economic changes at the grass-roots level have aroused great concern at the senior level. - Zhi Linglin: the survival of SMEs this year is very much concerned.

Taking Wenzhou as an example, how serious is the situation now?

Zhou Dewen: I want to rectify that there is no "20% enterprise failure" in Wenzhou, which is a misunderstanding of the outside world.

The fact is that about 20% of enterprises are in stoppage or semi shutdown, but this is totally the two concept.

Because for many enterprises, this is actually a strategic choice, in order to reduce the cost increase, choose to slow down production speed.

In Wenzhou, there are few businesses that really fail.

Of course, such a situation is also grim.

Because more than 10% of the enterprises have difficulty in production and operation, which indicates that the whole environment has problems.

As far as I know, the situation of Wenzhou enterprises is still much better than that of the outside world, and the situation in the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Bay and other places may be even more serious.

Zhi Linglin: for a long time, small and medium-sized enterprises have been regarded as models of grass-roots economy. Because of their strong resilience, they can survive in cracks and survive in fierce competition.

But why do many of them fail this year?

Zhang Jun: there are external factors.

In fact, since the second half of last year, the mainstream view of economics is that China's next economy will suffer from high inflation, especially the cost driven inflation.

Coupled with the impact of global inflation caused by the sharp rise in international oil prices and grain prices, the issue of cost has become an imminent matter.

So Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and so on have encountered such problems. I think it is entirely unexpected.

Of course, there are also factors of the enterprise itself.

Our export-oriented enterprises have gone through thirty years of development, but for the most part, they are still just a factory.

For a long time, although the market is highly competitive and the marginal profit is very low, because labor costs and land funds are very cheap, they can continue to run year after year and day after day.

But now, once external costs can not be controlled, it will be pmitted to all aspects of production.

Seemingly strong and tough grassroots economy, in fact, does not have the ability to resist risks. It is exposed in this round of cost crisis.

Zhou Dewen: as far as I know, external factors have great influence on enterprises.

One is the subprime mortgage crisis. Most enterprises in Wenzhou have exports directly or indirectly, but now it is difficult to collect overseas goods and reduce export share.

Second, the appreciation of the renminbi, like most enterprises in Wenzhou, is low cost and low price competition, which is very unfavorable for exports.

Third, raw material has risen to an unbearable degree, like copper in the past six months from the original 20 thousand yuan per ton to 70 thousand yuan.

Zhi Linglin: I wonder if the two have measured the cost of the enterprise in the last half year?

For the operation of enterprises, what is the equivalent of such a shock?

Zhou Dewen: about 15%, this equivalent can be fatal. Like us, the profits of our enterprises are very thin, but they are 5%-8%.

If the increase in costs does not mean that the profits will be eaten, there is basically no profit whatsoever.

At least in Wenzhou, enterprises are not seeking development, but seeking survival.

Many business owners say that it will be nice to keep this year.

Zhang Jun: I also think it is no less than 15%-20%.

The best way to describe this is also a favorite word of economists. Shock (shock) can be said to be a shock.

As oil prices rose sharply in the 70s of last century, it was a fatal blow to many economies at that time.

Because the cost squeeze can be pmitted and spread. Today we see that 10% or 20% of enterprises are affected, but in another two months, it may spread to 20% and 30%.

So we have to look at this problem dynamically, because the cost will flow like water, so long as there is no gate, it will flow forward and will soon spread to related industries.

We must not underestimate the occurrence of such a situation and its possible impact on the economic fundamentals.

Zhi Linglin: in the face of the current predicament, there are two possible attitudes: one is pessimistic, and the medium and small enterprises are the embodiment of the whole economic vitality. If it fails, is it a sign of fundamental problems?

One is more optimistic, which is the inevitable pain of the entire Chinese economy in the process of pformation.

How should we look at this?

Zhang Jun: today, our manufacturing industry has been hit hard. It is eroding the fundamentals of the economy. This must be acknowledged.

And it may be copied very quickly.

Of course, we can give a little "quick acting Kyushin Pills" to support through some taxes, credit or other short-term fiscal policies.

But if this goes on, it will not solve the problem.

As far as individuals are concerned, a lot of enterprises are going to throw them away like this. It may be a fate that can not be escaped. But from the overall perspective, we should realize that we should seek the way of survival in the new economic environment from such a Nirvana rebirth.

In fact, as long as the policy is applied properly, there may be a new change in the industrial structure in just 35 years.

In fact, the most effective way to resist the rise of external costs is to increase labour productivity. But when subsidies and cheap resources are available, it is difficult for enterprises to have such a driving force and pressure.

Therefore, I think it may be an opportunity for the adjustment of industrial structure and the improvement of labor productivity.

On the other hand, thirty years ago, how did the system of some processing enterprises remain unchanged?

Why is it still a factory?

Many bosses are not entrepreneurs. They can only imitate and produce a product, but he doesn't know how a company should operate.

A real company is only a part of its business, and there are some operations at the capital level, such as the ability to finance, so that it will have more room for survival in the market, and its ability to resist risks is much better than that of a single factory.

So through this crisis, we need to reflect: why can't entrepreneurs get out?

In this regard, we need to have macro strategic thinking, including how to see the development of China's manufacturing industry in the next five years and ten years, how to upgrade the industrial structure and how to build more modern companies.

Transformation is of course painful.

And from a national perspective, it may not be how many enterprises can survive. In my view, it is likely that the rise of another wave of enterprises is not a simple pformation of their own.

In the process, if there is no response, there are likely to be some areas being replaced, and a new wave of enterprises will rise elsewhere.

So we must make preparations for this crisis, which is likely to change the economic map of the growth of the existing enterprises.