There Is No Obvious Improvement In The Apparel Industry Inventory, Which Does Not Support The Upward Trend In Share Prices.

< p > February < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > clothing exports amounted to US $16 billion 400 million, an increase of 69% over the same period last year, far exceeding market expectations. As a result of the increase in exports in February, total exports in 1 and February were US $50 billion 300 million, up 61% over the same period last year. Under the stimulation of export unexpected data, textile stocks rose sharply on that day. < /p >
< p > but through the analysis of the relevant data, we think that the expected improvement of export data in February is the result of the following factors: 1, low base factor: in 2012 February, China's textile and clothing exports were only 9 billion 700 million US dollars in the same month, the year-on-year growth rate was -21%, the lowest point in the whole year; 2, foreign < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > clothing > /a > concentrated inventory replenishment: in 2012 November, the US apparel industry inventory sales ratio was only 1.72, reaching the lowest point in 2012 year, and foreign clothing traders had centralized replenishment behavior, which showed that the export index of China's exports reached 50.2 in that month. 3, from the foreign clothing sales situation, the domestic apparel retail sales in the United States have been on the low side since the high growth in March last year, and the growth rate was only 2.63% in December last year. Although the growth rate in January this year reached 7.54%, it did not support the judgement that the terminal sales were substantially warmer. < /p >
< p > in fact, the export situation of China's textile industry is closely related to the level of foreign economic recovery, but also closely related to the spread of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_h.asp" > cotton < /a > at home and abroad. Since October last year, cotton prices in the United States have risen sharply, from 9700 yuan / ton to the current 12030 yuan / ton, and the percentage of cotton price difference between China and China has dropped from 95% in October to 62%, which is basically the same as that in the same period last year. But considering the inventory situation of cotton textile enterprises, the cost difference between China's cotton textile industry and foreign enterprises is larger than that of the same period last year. The change of cotton price and cost difference in late stage needs to pay close attention to the change of China and international cotton prices. < /p >
< p > based on the above inference, we can see that the substantial increase in exports in 1 and February is not sustainable. In the background of moderate or mild recovery, China's textile exports may maintain a slight growth. Exports in March are expected to drop sharply compared to February. Optimistic estimates may fall back to around 10%. In February this year, the sales volume of clothing stores in China's bazaar was 21 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over the same period last year. 1-2 months total 46 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 6% over the same period. Lower than expected. From the 8.7% growth rate in December last year, it continued to decline. From a pessimistic point of view, sales of clothing sales increased only 3.3% in the 1-2 months of last year, which is the lowest point of the year. The low growth rate in 1-2 months this year is based on a low base. It seems that there should be a more pessimistic expectation for sales in the past few months. From an optimistic point of view, the netizen Carnival of double 11 Festival last November may overdraft terminal retail in the next three months. With the sale of seasonal garments in March, there is reason to believe that sales will improve. But in a word, clothing sales will ultimately be determined by residents' incomes and expectations and CPI. Under the pressure of a weak macroeconomic recovery and CPI still under pressure, clothing sales are unlikely to rebound substantially. We are neutral and pessimistic about clothing sales in the next 1 months. < /p >
< p > under the background of weak economic recovery, the clothing terminal sale is still in the process of going out of stock in the next 1 months, and it is difficult to improve obviously. Fundamentals do not support the upward trend in share prices. From the valuation point of view, the current valuation is at a historical low point, but it lacks the catalyst to promote the return of stock prices. Clothing stocks will fluctuate synchronously and will not win the big market. Give "neutral" rating. For export oriented textile stocks, we are cautious about the logic of investment logic that "foreign economic recovery will stimulate domestic textile industry growth and domestic textile industry's low point has passed". As stated above, first, foreign demand is weak growth. The expected growth in February is a case; second, the view that "the international cotton price is rising and the competitiveness of domestic textile industry is increasing" needs to be verified or falsified. If the growth rate of domestic textile exports has dropped sharply in March, the market will re examine the logic of the rise of textile stocks. Export figures need to be released around April 10th in March. Before the textile sector is still possible, we will still give a "neutral" rating from a cautious point of view. < /p >