September 25, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10920 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14980 yuan / ton; C32S price 25720 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 24, the domestic cotton spot continued to operate smoothly.

In 2012, the sale of reserve cotton went on sale. It is expected that the listing amount of new cotton will be gradually enlarged before the suspension of sales on the 29 th, and the market supply of lint is guaranteed. However, with the support of the purchasing and storage policy, the price of new cotton will probably be higher than that of the current reserve cotton and foreign cotton, and the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter is still not optimistic.

3. imported cotton: in September 24th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell completely. Most varieties fell by 1 cents, and Australia cotton fell 2 cents.

Compared with ICE futures, the drop in foreign cotton spot on that day was limited.

Recently, domestic storage and storage increased gradually, and the foreign cotton market turned from hot to cold. However, with the strong domestic price, foreign businessmen were more cautious about reducing the price greatly.

There is still a chance to sell imported cotton in the case of high price difference between inside and outside.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 24th, the reserve cotton plan was put on the market for 45294.73 tons, and the actual turnover was 19445.29 tons. The turnover rate was 42.93%. The 328 cotton price was 18641 yuan / ton (public weight), up 20 yuan / ton compared with September 21st, which was 118 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price index B CNCotton B 18759 yuan / ton.

5.ICE cotton: in September 24th, ICE futures continued to fall under the shroud of empty air. After December, the contract dropped to 72.5 cents, there was a small purchase, which limits the decline in cotton prices.

Summary:

At the same time, the price is different.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up does not mean that it can be achieved because the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter demand is still not optimistic.

On the one hand, we must maintain the view that cotton prices will run at a low level for a long time. On the other hand, we should pay full attention to the policy of purchasing and storage and take the idea of lowering prices in order to operate. CF1301 40 and 60 day moving average are very important indicators.

[MEIKO futures] spot market stalemate difficult to change cotton look at MA60 support

Overnight, in September 24th, ICE futures continued to fall under the shadow of a bearish atmosphere. In December, the contract dropped to 72.5 cents after a small purchase, thereby limiting the decline in cotton prices.

At present, the market is hard to find good news. Under the double pressure of the rise in the US dollar index and the increase in the supply of new cotton, the market continues to decline.

However, in the short run, cotton prices will fall even after three trading days.

In the international market, in September 24th, the price of China's main port of import cotton fell completely. Most varieties fell by 1 cents, and Australia cotton fell 2 cents.

Compared with ICE futures, the drop in foreign cotton spot on that day was limited.

Recently, domestic storage and storage increased gradually, and the foreign cotton market turned from hot to cold. However, with the strong domestic price, foreign businessmen were more cautious about reducing the price greatly.

There is still a chance to sell imported cotton in the case of high price difference between inside and outside.

Domestic market, 24, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

In 2012, the sale of reserve cotton went on sale. It is expected that the listing amount of new cotton will be gradually enlarged before the suspension of sales on the 29 th, and the market supply of lint is guaranteed. However, with the support of the purchasing and storage policy, the price of new cotton will probably be higher than that of the current reserve cotton and foreign cotton, and the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter is still not optimistic.

National Reserve dynamics: 1 and September 24th, the sale of reserve cotton was 19 thousand and 400 tons, and the turnover rate was 42.93%. The total turnover was 340 thousand and 900 tons, with a turnover rate of 48.18%.

2, in September 24th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business was 26600 tons. As of September 24th, the total annual cotton purchase and storage paction in 2012 reached 88390 tons, of which 18870 tons were traded in the mainland and 69520 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, September 24th, the US C/A cotton 89.35 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15287 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 94.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15945 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.40, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 15552 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton price is 86.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14940 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.35, discount general trade port delivery price 14786 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19629 yuan / ton; the B index is 18759.

Market analysis, the recent US cotton export data is worse than expected, mainly from China's poor consumer expectations.

Domestic textile enterprises are still in a difficult position, with limited volume of cotton yarn, coupled with tight liquidity, the enthusiasm for lint purchasing is not high, and the lint spot market is under pressure.

Overnight cotton fell by 1.02% during the ICE period. Today we are concerned about whether the 60 day moving average price can be stabilized effectively.

Operation, temporary wait and see, see the effectiveness of MA60 support.

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[one German futures] cotton before the beginning of the cotton market, flat cotton, low price settled empty list

CF1301 opened low on Monday, and CF1301 closed more than 11.3 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19475 yuan / ton, down 235 yuan / ton, adding 1424 hands; in September 24th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.72 cents / pound, down 1.56 cents / pound, 1%

The conversion price is 14211 yuan / ton, and the conversion price is 15016 yuan / ton under the sliding tax.

According to New York's September 24th news, the US cotton futures fell third days on Monday and hit a five week low, as investors continued to sell after the market had recently risen to 77 cents.

The ICE12 contract fell 0.75 cents or 1.02%, and the settlement price was 72.5 cents per pound.

In September 24th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market was 12520 tons, 4100 tons less than the previous trading day, the order volume increased by 120 tons, and the total order 92600 tons.

On the 24 day, the MA1211 contract was opened and other contracts were opened.

Judging from the progress of seed cotton purchase, although some regions are worried about the market and slow down the progress of seed cotton purchase, but in October, seed cotton will be listed in large quantities. According to the current market situation, the storage will be the best choice. With the large-scale storage and storage, the intention of purchasing and storing the market will slow down in the market.

On Monday, Zheng cotton went down low and returned to the 19200-19700 concussion zone, which is close to the lower track. It is suggested that investors should settle down part of the empty list and hold the high end bill. The demand for cotton market has not improved, and only the purchase and storage support has been maintained. Therefore, Zheng cotton has not got rid of the kinetic energy of the shock zone.

Today's operation suggests that the bottom line will be closed and the bottom bill will continue to hold. The reference price range of CF1301 will be 19300-19600.

Wanda futures worries about the euro zone economy continue to cause ICE cotton to continue to fall.

The weak German business climate index and the heavy debt burden of Spain exacerbated worries about the worsening eurozone economy. The overall market sentiment was frustrated. Cotton in the ICE period continued to decline. Although the low textile buying limit had led to a decline, the final main contract in December still fell 0.75 cents to 72.5 cents / pound, and the downward trend continued.

At present, the macro level is weak, the basic global output is much higher than that of consumption, and the supply pressure of new cotton listing is increasing. However, consumption is dragged down by economic drag. The downtrend may continue. The December contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position.

Technically, on Monday ICE cotton was closed, and the main contract in December was still closed below the short-term average. The short-term average has a downward trend. The KD and MACD indexes continue to fall short, the MACD index green column growth, and the downtrend will continue. It is expected that the December contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position.

The weakness of the peripheral market has become an incentive for Zheng cotton to fall. Although the main 1301 contract on Monday dropped to 19400 yuan / tonne line, only 19445 tons of stocks were sold and the turnover rate was only 42.93%. The continued filming highlights the low demand for raw materials in the downstream market.

At the same time, the global economy is also dragged down by the recession of the euro area, and the consumption of textile and clothing continues to shrink.

And new cotton began to be listed in large quantities, Xinjiang cotton cost less than 19200 yuan / ton, the cost of cotton in the mainland is only about 18000 yuan / ton, and the increase in consumption caused Zheng cotton to face downward pressure.

Will continue to decline along with the US cotton, the 1301 contract 19400 yuan / ton support falls behind, continues to increase holds the empty list, the downward goal will arrive 19000 yuan / ton, and take this price as the pressure level.