Global Cotton Production Forecast Will Decrease In 2012/13
According to the US Department of agriculture, global production forecast for 2012/13 dropped 6% from last year to 115 million 300 thousand bales.
The revised forecast shows a decrease of 1 million 400 thousand packs since last month, because of the world
Cotton price
Continued
decline
Australia, Argentina and Brazil are expected to reduce cotton planting area (hence production).
Australia and Brazil expect to produce 4 million 250 thousand and 7 million bags respectively in 2012/13, 10% and 23% respectively from the previous year.
The harvest area in Australia is expected to fall to 475000 hectares in 2012/13, while the area in Brazil is expected to decrease by 23% to 1 million 100 thousand hectares.
China and India are expected to produce 30 million 500 thousand packages and 25 million packages, representing a decrease of 9% and 6% respectively over the previous year.
Pakistan's 2012/13 production is expected to decline 6% from last year to 10 million bales.
The United States is the only country that produces more cotton in the last 2012/13 than last year, and is expected to increase by 9% to 17 million packs because of severe drought last year.
The global harvest area is estimated at 33 million 700 thousand hectares, a decrease of 6% over the previous year, while the unit yield is estimated at 746 kg / ha, which is similar to that of 2011/12.
The world's textile stocks will rebound at the end of 2012/13.
Although world cotton consumption in 2012/13 decreased by one million pack (1%) from last month, the forecast of 109 million packages is still nearly 3% higher than that of last year.
China expects to consume 40 million bales of cotton in 2012/13, 2% less than last year.
If so, this will be the lowest amount of textile mill in 8 years.
The reduction in consumption in China will be offset by the increase in the amount of India textile mill. 2012/13 cotton consumption in India is projected to be 21 million 300 thousand packs, an increase of 6% over the previous year.
In Pakistan and Turkey, the volume of textile mills in 2012/13 is expected to be 11 million and 5 million 600 thousand packs respectively, up 7% and 6% respectively from the previous year. The consumption of Brazil is expected to be close to 4 million 300 thousand packs, 6% higher than that of last year, while the consumption of 2012/13 in the United States is expected to increase by 3% to 3 million 500 thousand packages.
Thailand expects to spend nearly 1 million 600 thousand bags in 2012/13, up 22% over the previous year, because the amount of Thailand textile mill has recovered from the severe floods experienced in 2011/12.
2012/13's global final inventory is expected to hit 74 million 500 thousand Bao Xingao, an increase of 11% over last year, and production is expected to exceed consumption.
It is not surprising that the inventory to consumption ratio is expected to increase to 68%, which will weaken global cotton prices.
China's 2012/13 stocks are expected to increase by 31 million 300 thousand at the end of the 2012/13 period, up 15% from the previous year. Therefore, the world's largest cotton consuming country will account for 42% of the world's final inventory.
India and Brazil are expected to account for 12% and 10% of the global 2012/13 end inventory, respectively.
The United States, Pakistan and Australia are expected to account for 7%, 5% and 4% respectively.
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