Analysis Of Investment Strategy In Textile And Garment Industry

　　 Consumption growth is decreasing, and profits are increasingly concentrated on channels.

The number of exports of primary products in China's textile industry has declined significantly, while the export volume has also dropped significantly. The export volume of clothing is still at an expanding stage.

In March 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 15650 billion yuan, up 15.20% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was lower than that in the past two years. Because of the soft landing of the national economy, the consumption situation also has a trend of slower growth. Counter cyclical policy is being implemented, and the possibility of consumption decline is not large.

In terms of production, in March, the PPI of the textile industry was -4.77, which continued to decline, and the PPI of textile and clothing shoes and hats was 3.16, keeping stable. In terms of sales, the growth rate of the textile terminal retail price index has also declined rapidly, and the terminal retail price index of clothing shoes and hats is still at a high point. In March, the RPI index of textiles was 2.70, the rate of decline was not as fast as the factory price index. The growth rate of clothing shoes and hats RPI index decreased slightly, to 3.50. The factory price index is stabilizing and will gradually decline. In terms of consumption, clothing and clothing CPI was 4 in March, still at the highest level, which is in line with the intuitive perception of consumers. The rapid rise in clothing prices has led to a slowdown in consumption.

　　 Market trend

In April, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.90%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 6.98%, the Shen Wan textile and garment industry rose 5.44%, the Shen Wan textile manufacturing industry index rose 7.42%, and the Shen Wan clothing textile industry index rose 3.90%. The overall trend of the industry is basically the same as that of the market. The top companies ranked as the main industry or the sideline industry were faster than the textile and garment industry, such as the red bean (600400), the real estate industry, Zhejiang run (600070), iron and steel, black peony (600510) and so on. Brand clothing companies entered stagflation or fall, especially in the annual reports and quarterly reports slower than expected home textile companies.

　　 investment strategy

As of April, industry data showed that the textile and garment industry was relatively stable. Although the overall opportunity has not yet arrived, the growth rate is high and the management is still in the transition from extensive to intensive transformation.

Market expectations for annual reports and quarterly reports have been fulfilled. Consumption data in the two quarter may improve with the recovery of the national economy. It is cautious for the industry as a whole to maintain a "neutral" rating of the industry. We are optimistic about the industries with strong defensive capabilities, as well as those with large changes in the early stage and little changes in fundamentals. We will continue to play a leading role in business men's wear, fashion leisure and textile manufacturing industry. We recommend Pathfinder (300005), seven wolves (002029) and searcht (002503). {page_break}

　　 1., consumption growth is decreasing, and profits are increasingly concentrated on channels.

　　 1.1 exports to the United States recover faster.

Industrial data in March 2012 showed that the export volume of cotton yarn was 49 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 71.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.87%, and the export amount of cotton yarn was 252 million US dollars, a rise of 73.17%, a decrease of 31.38% compared with the same period last year. The export volume of garments and accessories was 10 billion 285 million dollars, and the ring ratio increased by 88.80%, up 18.62% over the same period.

The number of exports of primary products in China's textile industry has declined significantly, while the export volume has also dropped significantly. The export volume of clothing is still at an expanding stage.

In March 2012, the amount of textile raw materials and textile products exported to the EU increased by 2.18% compared to the same period last year. The amount of footwear and accessories such as exports increased by 6.42%, recovering from the standstill of production during the Spring Festival to the level of previous years. The amount of textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States increased by 24.32% compared to the same period last year, and the amount of export shoes and umbrellas and accessories increased by 12.65%. The export situation of China's textile industry to the two main export areas is basically stable, and the situation of exporting to the United States is relatively stable and is now picking up faster.

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　　 1.2 domestic consumption growth is decreasing.

In March 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 15650 billion yuan, up 15.20% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was lower than that in the past two years. Because of the soft landing of the national economy, the consumption situation also has a trend of slower growth. Counter cyclical policy is being implemented, and the possibility of recession is not large.

　　 1.3 the terminal price index remains high, and channel profit is still abundant.

In terms of production, in March, the PPI of the textile industry was -4.77, which continued to decline, and the PPI of textile and clothing shoes and hats was 3.16, keeping stable. In terms of sales, the growth rate of the textile terminal retail price index has also declined rapidly, and the terminal retail price index of clothing shoes and hats is still at a high point. In March, the RPI index of textiles was 2.70, the rate of decline was not as fast as the factory price index. The growth rate of clothing shoes and hats RPI index decreased slightly, to 3.50. The factory price index is stabilizing and will gradually decline.

In terms of consumption, clothing and clothing CPI was 4 in March, still at the highest level, which is in line with the intuitive perception of consumers. The rapid rise in clothing prices has led to a slowdown in consumption.

　　 1.4 the fastest rise in garment output growth

In March, the output of cotton cloth was 3 billion 110 million meters, up 19.61% from the same period last year. The output of yarn was 278.65, the growth rate was 20.22% over the same period last year, the output of cloth was 5 billion 372 million meters, the growth rate was 18.43% over the same period last year, and the clothing output was 2 billion 222 million, up 15.92% over the same period.

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　　 2. market trend

　　 2.1, the clothing home textile industry is mediocre.

In April, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.90%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 6.98%, the Shen Wan textile and garment industry rose 5.44%, the Shen Wan textile manufacturing industry index rose 7.42%, and the Shen Wan clothing textile industry index rose 3.90%. The overall trend of the industry is basically consistent with that of the market. The excess income of the textile manufacturing industry is relatively large, mainly due to the fact that the sideline industry is rising faster than that of the textile and garment industry, and the clothing home textile industry is mediocre. At present, the valuation of textile and garment industry is 22.76 times, the value of textile manufacturing industry is 24.36 times, and the value of apparel home textile industry is 22.12 times.

　　 2.2 rise or fall list

In April, most of the top companies ranked as the main industry or the sideline industry rose faster than the textile and garment industry, such as the red bean joint venture real estate, Zhejiang rich run steel, the Black Peony business building and so on. Brand clothing companies entered stagflation or fall, especially in the annual reports and quarterly reports slower than expected home textile companies.

　　 3. investment strategy this month

As of April, industry data showed that the textile and garment industry was relatively stable. Although the overall opportunity has not yet arrived, the growth rate is high and the management is still in the transition from extensive to intensive transformation. Market expectations for annual reports and quarterly reports have been fulfilled. Consumption data in the two quarter may improve with the recovery of the national economy. It is cautious for the industry as a whole to maintain a "neutral" rating of the industry. We are optimistic about the industries with strong defensive capabilities, as well as those with large changes in the early stage and little changes in fundamentals. We will continue to play a leading role in business men's clothing, fashion leisure and textile manufacturing industry, and recommend Pathfinder, seven wolves and search special.