Textile Industry: 2012 Things That Still Can'T Be Broken.

No matter how Mayans predict 2012,

Although it has passed, the cotton price in 2011 still makes many people panic.

Following the 2010 cotton price surge, the ICE cotton contract in 2011 started and continued to rise from 140 cents to 219 cents, driving the domestic cotton up to 34500 in mid February and forming a double top with 33720 in November 10, 2010.

After that period, even though the domestic market atmosphere is still rising, some institutions even expect cotton prices to rise to 38000 yuan / ton ~40000 yuan / tonne pass, but the cotton futures have been in the downstream channel since then.

After March, cotton prices showed a unilateral wave pattern.

As consumption began to slump in March, especially in April and May, when enterprises began to cut production and stop production, cotton prices began to decline.

Although supported by cost factors, the price has stabilized briefly at the integer and psychological juncture, but under heavy pressure, coupled with the expected 2011 year high yield, the price fell to the first month of the cotton year and stabilized at the national storage price of 19800 yuan / ton.

From the end of September 2011 to the end of the year, systemic risk broke out, and the surrounding commodity market was generally down. The cotton market was protected by the state's 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price, and rebounded many times after hitting the bottom.

In 2012, what kind of expression will cotton show? In many factors, China's cotton policy has great influence, and the most important concern is cotton reserve policy.

The 4 most recent purchases and acquisitions by the state were the temporary opening and closing of the stock market at the end of 2006, mid 2007, the end of 2008 and September 2011.

Although the price of cotton in some early years was lower, the overall price of cotton in the late stage has been greatly supported.

As of December 12, 2011, the total annual storage capacity in 2011 reached 1 million 430 thousand tons, initially estimated that by March 31, 2012, the total storage capacity is expected to reach 2 million 500 thousand ~300 million tons. With the import source, the National Reserve will remain at the historical high reserve of 3 million 500 thousand ~400 tons, which will have an important impact on the market circulation resources, especially the high-grade resources.

The industry also has many conjectures about the policy of purchasing and storing up in 2012.

According to the 2011 Annual storage capacity, national storage capacity, peripheral commodity parity, planting enthusiasm and videophone conference analysis in September 2011, the state expects to announce a new policy of purchasing and storage in March 2012, which is estimated to increase further on the basis of 19800 yuan / ton.

Since the purchase price of seed cotton was about 7.6 yuan per kilogram this year, it dropped by 30% compared with the same period last year. Therefore, from the end of the national cotton monitoring system center, the intention of planting in some areas decreased.

If there is no effective incentive measure for cotton planting in April and then, the probability of cotton planting area falling will be very large.

Therefore, on the whole, the state's policy of purchasing and storing has played a stabilizing role in the special market. In 2011, the state put a lot of money into stable operation and stable planting, but in order to facilitate the healthy and orderly development of the industry in a long period of time, the policy must be able to persist and long term, otherwise it will only change the stage supply.

To avoid the backlog of contradictions, the retaliatory eruption should be avoided before the demand is actually started effectively.

The industry is also concerned about whether the quota variables are larger in 2012, and whether the risk will increase if companies sign hastily.

Based on the state's protection of cotton planting in China, it is estimated that there will be great changes in the time and quantity of quotas issued in 2012, making quota possible scarce resources. The import price of imported cotton is uncertain. Import enterprises should have a clear idea of this. This is also the key to guide the return of internal and external prices to the road of return.

Based on China's cotton market policy in 2012, the demand for textile and clothing in the lower reaches, the export and inventory of international cotton in India, and the evolution of the macro environment will be the major factors restricting the cotton market.

Industry enterprises should pay more attention to the band character of the cotton market.

Before March 2012, the industry must pay special attention to the reserves, spot market changes, the status of high-grade cotton gap and the state's policy of purchasing and storing in 2012. 4~5 month is the cotton growing season in China, and the planting area plus traditional shopping and consumption season will lead to a stable rebound trend. In the month of 6~9, we need to pay attention to whether the country will issue additional quotas or not, and how to ensure the normal demand for cotton, the situation of throwing and storing, including weather changes, etc., will be more reflected in suppressing the rebound of cotton. In the month of March, we should pay attention to the global cotton output and the improvement of global macro level in 2012, and the cotton market will get rid of the shadow of the sharp rise and fall and enter the new price evolution process.

Comprehensive factors we predict that in 2012, the domestic cotton price range will remain within the 19000 yuan / ton ~23000 yuan / ton interval, and the main operating range may remain between 19800 yuan / ton ~21500 yuan / ton.

Besides chemical fiber, there are many things to look forward to in 2012.

In the past year, textile market demand is sluggish, and textile peak season is not prosperous.

In the early days, textile enterprises purchased chemical fiber raw materials for their expectations for the textile peak season.

However, due to the fact that the textile season started less than expected, the main theme of the chemical fiber industry in October 2011 was the inventory of raw materials digested by the downstream enterprises, and the new purchase was weaker.

In November, as the textile industry entered the off-season, textile demand was expected to continue to slump.

In November 2011, the main trend of chemical fiber industry chain continued to decline, and the prices of polyester industrial yarn and viscose filament were mainly stable.

Since the beginning of the year, the prices of chemical fiber products have experienced two declines, showing different characteristics: in 3~7 months, the prices of chemical fiber products were down, while the prices of main raw materials represented by PTA, MEG and caprolactam were firm. Since October, the prices of chemical fiber products have returned to a general decline, while the decline in the price of this product has been accompanied by a decline in the strength of raw materials.

However, polyester filament and polyester industrial yarn are not affected by the downturn in textile industry demand, the pressure of production capacity is small, and the profit level remains stable.

Viscose filament demand remained stable for a long time. The industry did not have much new capacity in the long run, and the price and profit level of the products were mainly stable.

In 2012, the chemical fiber industry is expected to reverse the downturn in the previous year, and it is worth looking forward to.

Last year's fall would mean that the profits of all sectors of the industrial chain would be squeezed.

If the downstream demand starts in 2012, it will bring a turning point to the chemical fiber, but it also depends on the social inventory of chemical fiber products, including the raw material inventory of downstream textile enterprises, the inventory of dealers and the finished product inventory of chemical fiber enterprises.

It also depends on the price difference between polyester and viscose staple and cotton.