The Impact Of European Debt Is Gradually Showing &Nbsp; China'S Export Situation Is Even More Serious In The Coming Half Year.

The total value of China's foreign trade decreased by 8.3% in October.

Export growth has been decreasing since August.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on 10 may show that in October, China

Customs data show that China exported 157 billion 490 million US dollars in October.

In August, September and October, China's export growth rate was 24.5%, 17.1% and 15.9% respectively.

"It is normal for China's exports to decline."

Zhang Hanlin, Dean of China WTO Research Institute, University of International Business and Economics, said.

He believes that since June, confidence in the world economy has fallen, and the global economic slowdown has become more evident over time.

Generally speaking, export orders reflect lagging behind the global economic situation.

Therefore, China's export growth slowed down in August.

According to customs statistics, before October, China's foreign trade import and export amounted to US $2 trillion and 975 billion 380 million, an increase of 24.3% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 15497 billion US dollars, an increase of 22%, and imports of US $1 trillion and 425 billion 680 million, an increase of 26.9%.

The trade surplus was 124 billion 20 million US dollars, narrowing 15.4%.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that "it is not optimistic and will not be better than 2011".

Zhang Hanlin said that in November and December this year, exports will also decline, perhaps to about 10%.

In addition, the major international economic organizations predict that world economic growth will be more uncertain next year and pessimism prevails. China's exports in the first quarter of next year will be more difficult.

China's export growth is expected to be around 10% next year.

In a joint interview with Chinese and foreign media, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said that the current European debt crisis is mainly due to the sovereign debt crisis of the government, which has a relatively small impact on the private sector and personal consumption.

But with the ferment of the European debt crisis, the impact on the world and China's trade will continue to increase in the future.

Zhang Yansheng said that China's foreign trade enterprises are under tremendous pressure from home and abroad, including shrinking external demand, rising costs, tight corporate positions and rising Renminbi exchange rate.

"Especially severe is that at present, there are serious and comprehensive protectionism in Europe and the United States, and many enterprises are being attacked by the enemy."

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Depth analysis

Europe's debt crisis seems to be far from improving.

At this point, the external economy of the United States, the European Union and Japan will continue to be weak, which is difficult to change. How much will it affect China's foreign trade?

Customs data show that among the main export targets of China's exports, the top three are the European Union, the United States and Japan, which account for more than 60% of China's total exports. The three most important ones are the European Union, the United States and Japan.

In particular, the EU is China's largest trading partner and first export.

Experts pointed out that the European sovereign debt crisis intensified, which will inevitably affect our exports to Europe.

Among them, Spain and Italy are very close to China in the EU Member States. The import and export situation in the next 3-6 months deserves our attention.

Companies reflect orders from Europe and the US have been decreasing.

From the trade fair with the barometer of China's foreign trade, we can see a lot about the current demand in Europe and the United States.

Affected by the gloom of Europe and the United States, the volume of volume in the European and American markets of the 110th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has just dropped, and buyers are more likely to wait and see inquiries.

Among them, although the total export volume increased 3% from last year to 37 billion 900 million US dollars, and the number of buyers in Europe has also increased significantly, but Liu Jianjun, spokesman for the Canton Fair, said that buyers in Europe and America were more likely to wait and see inquiries, and the actual turnover from two regions decreased by 19% and 24% respectively.

Liu Jianjun said that the two characteristics of the Canton Fair are: first, the paction of essential commodities has increased, and the demand for non rigid ones has declined; two, the proportion of short and medium bills keeps high, and the proportion of long and single items is low.

Reporters interviewed a number of domestic and foreign trade enterprises, many of the main market in Europe and the United States to reporters, nearly two months ago, with the European debt crisis intensified, the European and American market demand fell into the downturn channel, the order from Europe and the United States is rapidly decreasing.

Xiao Youyuan, general manager of Zhuhai GREE electrical appliances overseas sales company, said that in the 3 quarter of this year, although the total export volume of GREE reached 60%, the export volume of European parts declined sharply, down 40%-50% from the same period last year.

TCL multimedia chief sales officer ho Yi also told reporters, "because of the European debt crisis intensified, the European and American market is weak, many famous international electrical appliances companies have lowered the sales target of the 4 quarter of this year."

Even in large enterprises, SMEs are more pessimistic.

Li Yunfa, head of Shunde Hardware Plastics Industry Co., Ltd., which has been dominated by European and American markets, said that the volume of exports in the first 9 months of this year fell by 10%-20% compared with last year.

"No new orders have been placed in customers in the past two months."

It is worth noting that in the first 3 quarters of this year, the import and export volume of Guangdong accounts for 1/4 of the total import and export volume of the country. Its growth rate in the EU is less than 8.9 percentage points in the overall growth rate of Guangdong, and the increase in the number of major trading partners such as the United States and Japan is lower than the overall growth rate of Guangdong by 10 percentage points or more.

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The situation predicts that the impact of European debt will emerge at the worst of fermentation or at the end of the year.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, as of November 2nd, the total value of China's import and export trade exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, a new record high.

The GST expects that the surplus will be about $170 billion this year, slightly lower than in 2010 or basically flat. The annual growth rate of imports and exports is estimated at about 21% and 18% respectively.

But some enterprises in the forefront of the market are not as reassuring as data.

Xiao Youyuan said that the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy will lag for 3-6 months. If it is optimistic that sales in the European market will be flat this year, if it is pessimistic, it will fall by 10%-20%.

"I believe the lowest point of decline will be revealed in December this year."

Li Yunfa also predicted that at least half a year, orders from Europe and the United States, especially in Europe, must continue to slide. "We can only keep 2-3 percentage points of our single profit at this Canton Fair, which is very small. In order to maintain the normal operation of the factory, the price will be very low if we do not lose money, and we will come next."

According to Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, on the one hand, the release of European debt crisis to the real economy needs a process, and there is a lag in the conduction of trade to China. On the other hand, Japan's post disaster reconstruction and the rapid expansion of trade with emerging economies have made up for the short supply of foreign demand left by the shrinking demand in Europe, so the impact of the European debt crisis on China's economy has not yet been fully reflected.

Countermeasures: China's manufacturing will no longer be spelled and prices should be won by quality.

Many export enterprises of textile, shoemaking, toys and other traditional industries sigh with reporters. With the rapid increase of production costs in recent two years, it is obvious that Chinese manufacturing has lost the price advantage.

Li Bo, the head of knitted garments branch of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Hualian Industrial Co., Ltd., said that many textile enterprises in China now no longer take orders from WAL-MART. "The more export of this price war, the more losses it has, which has gone against Chinese enterprises."

Niu Liang, director of the International Business Department of Shandong Lu Tai textile Limited by Share Ltd, said that with the gradual loss of domestic labor price advantage, our company already has plans to set up factories in Southeast Asia. "In the textile industry, labor costs account for about 20%-30% of the total cost, but this year, domestic labor costs have risen by more than 20%."

Li Bo said, "at present, the biggest advantage of manufacturing in China lies in technology and technology.

The price advantage is only relative to the developed countries.

However, when China's export enterprises lose their price advantage, what is their basis on the world market? Niu Liang said, one is to produce new products with high added value through innovation, and to attract new and old customers; the two is to further improve product quality and stabilize old customers; the three is to go out and set up factories at a lower level.

Expert opinion

Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute

Vice President Li Yushi:

China's import and export growth next year

No less than 10%

Li Yushi, vice president of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters that although the European debt crisis has not yet passed, the 2008-2009 year financial crisis and China's export situation show that because China's exports are mostly low-grade necessities, the impact of the crisis on exports is limited, while the Chinese government's policy of supporting imports is expected to increase, and then the trade surplus will continue to shrink.

Li Yu predicted that the growth rate of China's imports and exports will not be less than 10% next year, and the total foreign trade volume will increase by 10% compared with this year's US $3 trillion and 500 billion, reaching US $3 trillion and 800 billion.

Li Yushi believes that although foreign trade enterprises are facing many factors such as rising raw materials, rising labor costs and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, many multinational companies still regard China as a production base. China is still a global supplier, and China's foreign trade has recovered rapidly from the financial crisis in 2008.

Li Yushi said that despite the fact that there are many internal and external factors of unfavorable foreign trade enterprises, the ability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises to cope with international risks has been significantly improved from the actual situation. Export enterprises will try every means to maintain market share, resist unfavorable factors such as rising raw materials and appreciation of the exchange rate, and improve product quality. Meanwhile, China's exports to developing countries will increase rapidly.