Global Stock Market Prisoner'S Dilemma &Nbsp; A Share

Last Friday, the three major indexes in the US stock market.

Global market panic

In August 4th, the Dow Jones industrial average, the standard & Poor's 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index fell 4.3%, 4.78% and 5.08% respectively.

"The biggest single day decline since the subprime crisis in 2008."

Investors made such comments on the performance of US stocks on that day.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis, many experts called it "a rare one hundred years" financial crisis.

"For Americans who have not yet recovered from the financial crisis, such comparisons not only trigger investors' bad memories of the financial crisis, but also trigger investors' revaluation.

Last Friday, the optimistic employment figures released by the United States eased the pessimism of the market, but some external factors did not give sustained support to optimism.

There are signs that the euro zone sovereign debt problem has spread to Italy and Spain, and the European Central Bank is taking measures.

Meanwhile, the European central bank governor Tyse said European economic growth is indeed facing downside risks.

On the other hand, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market to curb the rise of the yen.

Data show that in August 4th, the three index of European stock markets fell more than 4%, and last week the cumulative decline has exceeded 10%.

Although the Asia Pacific stock market is aware of it, it has not been spared.

In August 5th, Hongkong's Hang Seng Index fell 4.37%, Taiwan shares fell 5.58%, the Nikkei index fell 3.72%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.15%, and the commodity market also suffered a setback.

QE3 expects high

The reasons for the collapse of US stocks vary widely in the market, and American debt and European debt may be just excuses.

Rumor has it that Wall Street's short selling agencies are pushing the fed to launch QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing).

There are market participants joking: "they even short strategy is the same."

Since March this year, Wall Street has been making short use of the financial problems of Chinese enterprises listed in the us to create a round.

In fact, expectations for QE3 have been increasing.

After standard & Poor's downgrade of US Treasury bonds, Li Daokui, member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (micro-blog), pointed out that many investment institutions will then be forced to sell us long debt and lead to financial turmoil.

After that, the Federal Reserve will launch QE3 to buy US bonds to stabilize long-term interest rates, and China must stand firm.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its US third and fourth quarter economic growth forecast last Friday, and expects the US Federal Reserve to expand its asset size purchase and launch part QE3 after the August 9th interest conference, which will give a temporary boost to the capital market.

However, some analysts believe that the US launch of QE3 will face internal and external difficulties.

On the one hand, European countries are tightening fiscal policy. The consequences of the G7's inconsistent pace are hard to predict. On the other hand, despite the current weakening of US domestic inflation expectations, if the QE3 is launched, the US government will have to face the problem of high inflation.

Whatever the choice, the negative effects can not be ignored.

A shares

In this round of global stock market decline, China's stock market has some hindsight.

While the global stock market fell sharply, the Shanghai composite index was relatively stable, only on Friday.

Market participants believe that the early fall of A shares has weakened the impact of the global stock market decline.

As for the possible impact of the US and European markets, most institutions will be neutral if they remove the impact of large US Treasury bonds and export shrinkage.

UBS believes that the impact of overseas economic changes on the A share market will increase in the future. If the US economy remains weak in the early third quarter, the discussion on global economic slowdown and new stimulus policies, including QE3, will become more and more popular.

This will stimulate the performance of the upstream stock market in the structural market of the A share market, but it will also increase investors' concern about whether the inflation cycle is reversed.

The third party Securities Research Institute Mo Ni tower believes that the first half is the internal policy tightening triggered the A share market adjustment, while the second half of this factor gradually passivated, the focus of the market will shift to external economic growth and financial market turbulence, and then impact on the domestic real economy, especially external demand.

Later, the uncertainties abroad seem to be turning into negative factors and may continue to ferment.