CPI Rose Or Reached 6.2%&Nbsp In June; The Short-Term Regulatory Tone Remained Unchanged.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the main macroeconomic data in the first half of June and the middle of this month.

In terms of the most concerned prices, analysts expect that in June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 6.2% in the year to year, and a new high in the year, but the price level is expected to slow down in the second half of the year.

For now, managing inflation expectations is still

CPI year-on-year increase or innovation high

From the perspective of CPI composition, food and housing prices become the current situation.

The price statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed that food prices were mixed in June.

The prices of most vegetables continued to fall, and the price of eggs rose earlier. However, the rise in pork prices was more obvious, and became a new factor to pull up CPI.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, pork prices have risen for 10 consecutive weeks as of June 26th.

Last year, the price base was relatively low, and the influence of the tail factor could not be ignored.

In May, China's CPI rose by 5.5% over the same period. Assuming that the price cycle is flat in June, CPI's year-on-year growth will still be raised to more than 6% by the tail factor.

The research report released by CICC showed that many food prices rose in June, and the prices of fruits and vegetables fell sharply. Non food prices were expected to be flat or slightly higher.

On the whole, CPI is expected to rise by 6.2% in June.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of living class rose 6.1% in May compared with the same price in the eight categories of products that constituted CPI.

From the aspect of the chain ratio, the price of living class gradually stabilized.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, thinks that CPI grew by 6.3%-6.5% in June. Besides the price of pork and other foods, the price of rents and industrial electricity increased as a factor of rising prices.

Short term regulatory tone unchanged

There are some favorable factors in the current price trend, such as imported inflation has not increased.

According to the data released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the purchase price index in June was 56.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points, and the upward pressure from upstream prices eased somewhat.

In recent years, China's manufacturing PMI, monetary growth and other indicators have dropped, and the real economic downturn has helped to reduce the demand driven price rise.

Experts pointed out that the current upward pressure on prices is still more obvious. Before the CPI inflection point has been identified, the focus of macroeconomic regulation will still be concentrated.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, expects June to be a high CPI growth rate this year, with a specific increase of 6.2%-6.3%.

In the three quarter, there will be a drop in the price increase, which may drop to 3% or lower in the two quarter of next year.

With the downward trend in prices, the current tightening cycle may end in the three quarter, followed by a shift in policy orientation to neutral and observation periods.

Dr. Xu Qiyuan of the world economic institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that international commodity prices may remain weak in the second half of the year, and that the pressure of China's rising prices will come from home.

The current monetary policy regulation has achieved initial success, and the annual price increase may be maintained at a level of slightly above 4.5%.