Cotton Spot Is Still Declining In The Medium And Long Term Market Decline Is Limited.

Zhang Junling: Dongxing futures research and development center analyst, futures employment number F0261416.

Graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, with qualification of futures and securities.

Zhengzhou

Contact: 021-65458003 zhangjl@dxqh.net

First, futures market review

Zheng cotton main contract 09 opened 25540 yuan, closed at 25150 points, down 0.93%.

The turnover was 2381250 hands, and the positions increased by 6976 to 469746.

Two. Analysis of important factors

News side: 18 afternoon, part of the township farms in the Xinjiang Yili Kazakhstan Autonomous Prefecture of khaukhal Xibo Autonomous County suffered many rare storms and hail attacks, and more than 57000 mu of crops were affected.

According to statistics from the local civil affairs department, the wind and hail caused losses of crops such as wheat, cotton, corn, sugar beet and greenhouses vegetables in the area of Sichuan Province. The affected area reached 57693 mu.

The local government has launched an emergency plan for disaster relief and organized personnel to help themselves.

External news: US cotton July contract 1

Domestic spot market: in May 19th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 24561, down 45 points.

With the two increase in interest rates this year and the five increase in reserve requirements, the whole monetary environment has tightened considerably compared with last year. Cotton spinning enterprises generally have problems of narrowing of financing channels, and the current sales of cotton yarn have been sluggish.

Some large textile enterprises have fewer stocks of high-grade cotton, but the purchasing strength is still weak.

As the cotton spot remains stable, the number of shipments from cotton enterprises is increasing.

It is estimated that the late cotton inventory sale will take a long time and take a long time under the bad market situation.

In May 19th, China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) was 87.25, up 5.41.

The import cost is 30963 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 31303 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

Matchmaking deal: May 19th, the national cotton trading market.

Main trend: according to the top ten positions, today's zhengcotton total contract ranks more than 10 in the first 1357 positions to 1357 hands to 110329 hands, short positions increased 5016 to 139280 hands.

Clearance single 28951 hands.

Today's main net clearance hit a new high in the short term

Warehouse receipt change: today Zhengzhou No. 1 cotton warehouse receipt is 532, with an effective forecast of 327.

Three. Technical analysis

The 09 contract for cotton: today we will receive the shadow line in the shadow line.

The highest point is 25750, the lowest point is 25140.

In terms of technical indicators, RSI and KDJ are downwards; MACD is upward and the red column is enlarged.

Today, the intraday high, but did not fall below the 25000 pass.

Four, investment proposals

Today, cotton has greatly increased, and then fell sharply, deducing roller coaster market.

Today, the market news is dull, and the overnight commodities are booming.

Because the market did not expect to raise interest rates during the year of the Federal Reserve, many morning efforts were made.

Unfortunately, before the resistance came to a sharp squeeze, the market quickly dropped, and in the declining trend of most varieties of the market, cotton late diving dived at a low point in the day.

Although the spot price is still falling, the market is showing some signs of falling.

But in the short term, the strength of the market has not yet been well condensed.

On the other hand, the US cotton is at an important resistance level of 160 cents, with the risk of callback and the reason for short selling.

But in the medium to long term, the space for cotton to fall has been limited.

On the operation, the short line days are short and high, and the trend of the 1201 midline can only be maintained. 1109, if it falls below 25000, the short line can stop first and then buy again.