Three Hidden Worries Drag On Listed Companies

Insiders worry about the first quarter. list The company's performance stumbling block is likely to continue to drag on the listed companies in the second half of the year. achievement And the overall performance of the A share market.
In the first quarter of this year, a large number of small and medium-sized board companies, such as the negative growth of the small and medium-sized board companies, the sharp decline of hundreds of star shares such as Hai Rui and Hanwang Technology, and the "zero turnover" stocks and the gem of the growth enterprise board were frequently plunged. All kinds of bad news about the capital market are endless. By the end of 4, the Shanghai composite index had lost half of its gains after the Spring Festival, while the growth of the gem and small and medium sized boards has completely dropped the "rabbit market" rate that investors liked at the beginning of the year.

At the end of last year, most institutions saw much of this year. equity market But in the face of the pressure of inflation and macro policy and the general losses in the first quarter, the gap between the two sides is gradually emerging. There are concerns in the industry that some factors that will block the performance of Listed Companies in the first quarter may continue to drag the performance of listed companies and the overall performance of the A share market in the second half.

Worry one: inflation continues to deteriorate

The pressure of inflation on the first quarter has begun to emerge. The price of oil and coal has risen. Under the inflationary pressure, some companies have gradually increased their cost pressures, and their performance has dropped sharply or even lost. Many listed companies reported in the 2010 annual report and the first quarter of 2011 that losses were caused by the pressure of rising costs. This is very evident in many industries, such as resource listed companies, power industry, transportation industry and so on.

In the first quarter, Chang Ze electric power achieved a strong operating income of 1 billion 38 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.28%, a net profit loss of 177 million yuan, and a direct relationship between losses and the rise in coal prices.

The listed companies whose profits are eroded by coal prices also have the Zhuye group. The company lost 90 million 840 thousand yuan in the first quarter, a sharp decrease of 7021% compared to the same period last year, or a loss of 0.17 yuan per share. The reason for the loss is also the "year-on-year decrease in the price of zinc products, the increase in coal tar and electricity prices. In addition, the net realizable net value of the final inventory is lower than the book cost, resulting in the increase in the price increase."

It is estimated that coal prices will continue to operate at a high level after the first quarter. Huatai Securities pointed out that in recent years, some provinces have increased the price of electricity on the Internet. From the point of view of transmission, coal enterprises are still in a strong position in pricing, and the profit margins of the adjustment of online tariff will soon be eroded by the rise in coal prices.

High oil price is another "profit killer" of listed companies, and the shipping industry suffers from it. Such as the long voyage Phoenix loss is as high as 163 million yuan. For the reasons for the loss, the long voyage Phoenix said: "the international dry bulk market index BDI is at a low level, and the ocean business of the company has been affected. The demand for domestic and international shipping is not strong, and the freight rate has declined, resulting in a decline in the company's income and profit margins. The increase in fuel prices and bank lending rates has led to an increase in costs." The cost of fuel rose 28% to $600 / ton compared to the same period last year, which engulfed the meager profits.

A private person told reporters that the growth of enterprises in the second half of this year could be even more restrained. Oil prices were raised for the two time this year, the first in February 20th and the second in April 7th. The second time is not only a substantial increase, but also a start from the time of the two quarter, which has not yet been reflected in the financial statements of listed companies. This may make the performance loss of listed companies further expand in the first quarter due to rising costs.

"The erosion of profits by rising costs is one of the effects of inflation. Besides, the impact of inflation on listed companies is also reflected in the harm of monetary policy to tighten liquidity, especially those with high debt rates." Zhejiang Merchants Securities said in an interview with reporters.

Hidden worry two: gem's "high and small"

Since the establishment of the gem, it has attracted much attention. Recently, it has attracted the attention of investors with a strong "downtrend". While the low performance of the plate index has led to the decline of most share prices, it has also greatly discouraged investors' trading confidence.

In recent trading days, Wan bang, Conet, Yongqing environmental protection and other GEM stocks have gone out of the "the Great Wall type" trend of time sharing, often a few minutes "zero" turnover phenomenon shows that the willingness to participate in funds is bleak. The performance of other listed companies has also been quite alarming. Among them, Xin Ning logistics lost 1 million 810 thousand yuan net profit in the first quarter of this year, down 177% compared with the same period last year. Before the listing of Internet technology, the net profit growth rates of Companies in 2007 and 2008 were 56.89% and 45.51% respectively. However, immediately after the listing, "changed face" - the net profit growth rate in 2009 was only 4.78%, and then it dropped to 1.48% year-on-year in 2010.

Recently, some professional commentators have pointed out that when issuing new shares, it is easy for the listed companies and underwriting sponsors and funds and other institutional investors to work together to push up the issue price of new shares, and create bubbles from the date of IPO, and then let the stock investors pay the price in the fall of share prices, but they will retreat and steal. In the two tier market, funds and other agencies use the information "prophet" advantage, borrow the concept of the subject to push up the stock price, and then sell the goods by themselves and seduce the retail investors. In the process of the small cap stock price going to bubble, the circulation links such as brokerages and funds have not been damaged. Instead, they have been heavily affected by cash or raising the issue price.

An investor interviewed by a reporter said that the company's financial statements before listing would show a relatively high growth. These statements can be whitewashed, and can not explain the real situation of the company well. Most listed companies will substantially increase their performance before listing, and there are also many PE support behind it. To put it bluntly, in the first tier market's "Exploitation" and "overdraft", when the company is listed on the two tier market, the price tends to be high, and the profits are eroded by the primary market. {page_break}

"The growth of the growth enterprise market is not reflected at all. It has little investment value and can not benefit retail investors. How many people are expected to play this game? This person believes that the gem will not perform well in the future.

Secret worry three: measuring the confusion of demand

Recently, the media published "Hanwang Technology is facing internal and external troubles" in a paper once pointed out that the backlog of inventory has become one of the difficulties faced by Hanwang. According to the data released recently, there is no need for Han Wang to face inventory worries in the future.

In April 29th, the national development and Reform Commission released the end of 3 national industrial enterprises finished product inventory data, indicating that the index increased by 23.2% over the same period last year.

A survey by a research institution showed that, as of April 28th, 2086 listed companies that had disclosed annual reports, excluding 2016 companies with comparable financial services and inventory data, had a total inventory of 3 trillion and 180 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 36% over the same period last year. On average, each company had a stock of 1 billion 570 million yuan, a record high. And in the first quarter of this year, the book inventory of listed companies has reached as high as 3 trillion and 530 billion yuan.

From the detailed point of view, in the above 2016 companies, in 2010, a total of 1614 companies' inventories grew year on year. Among them, the inventory of 204 companies increased by more than 100% over the same period last year. The inventory of Ningbo thermal power, Wuhu port and 100 largest companies increased by 3535.06 times, 334 times, and 236 times respectively, ranking the top three.

In fact, it is not uncommon for the industry to be worried by high inventories. Chen Li, chief securities strategist of UBS Securities, recently put forward the view that the A share market will go down in the two quarter of this year by analyzing the relationship between inflation expectations, inventory changes and corporate profits.

In an interview with reporters, Zhejiang Merchants Securities also said that under the current severe inflation situation, listed companies should not only face the pressure of rising costs, but also control inventory and find a true reflection of demand. For export listed companies, we should not only face the "Snow" of inflation, but also face the frost of RMB appreciation. It can be described as "adding insult to injury". Once a lot of stock is backlog, the capital will be severely tested.