The New Mortgage Stress Test Is More Severe &Nbsp; Seven Cities Are Listed As "High Risk".

Reporter 21 days from

It is understood that the three cases are: house prices fell by 30% on average.

The mortgage pressure test conducted by the CBRC last May set the average decline in real estate prices by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively.

The severe pressure scenario set at that time was: real estate prices fell by 30%, interest rates rose by 108 basis points.

In fact, as early as last year, some analysts pointed out that a new round of stress testing is likely to raise the scope of the stress test scenario according to the fluctuation of housing prices everywhere.

However, the relevant person in charge of the CBRC has stressed that various scenarios assume that the CBRC does not judge the trend of the real estate market, nor does it mean that the real estate credit policy may change.

It is worth noting that the new round of mortgage stress tests also listed Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other seven cities as high risk areas for mortgage loans. They need to calculate the impact of real estate loans in terms of the conditions of larger housing prices.

The CBRC said that the risk of housing loans has always been the focus area of the CBRC. Mortgage stress testing is one of the forward-looking risk management tools frequently used by commercial banks, and it is the need for commercial banks to enhance their risk management level.

From the data released by the annual reports of major banks, the risk of mortgage loans is still under control.

Taking ABC as an example, Guo Haoda, vice president of Agricultural Bank of China, said that ABC has conducted 6 stress tests on mortgage loans since last year. The results show that mild and moderate pressure has little effect on the quality of loans, and the bad assets growth caused by the overall decline of housing prices by 50% will not exceed 0.5 percentage points.

The new round of mortgage testing is more targeted.

Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently said that a new round of mortgage pressure tests should be launched for banking financial institutions.

Analysts pointed out that this reflects the regulatory authorities take a more cautious attitude towards the real estate risks. Because of the tightening of capital and the risk of mortgage loans, commercial banks may lower the overall proportion of mortgage loans, and whether the CBRC will further tighten the policy of real estate credit, and the outcome of this round of stress tests.

The new round of stress testing is more targeted.

Reporters learned from the relevant departments that the new round of real estate stress tests increased the assumption that housing paction area decreased and so on, and improved the standard of the three situations of falling light, medium and heavy prices.

The three cases are: the average price of house prices fell by 30%, interest rates rose by 27 basis points, house prices fell 40%, interest rates rose by 54 basis points, house prices fell 50%, and interest rates rose by 108 basis points.

The mortgage pressure test conducted by the CBRC last May set the average decline in real estate prices by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively.

Yan Qingmin, assistant chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in the national "two sessions" that stress tests showed that the bottom line number of real estate regulation and control on bad debts of banks was 30%.

According to the introduction, this round of mortgage pressure test also listed Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other 7 cities as high-risk areas for mortgage loans.

Regulators told reporters that the CBRC was set up in early April.

Mortgage risk has always been the focus of attention of the CBRC. Mortgage testing is also a routine work at the regulatory level. The main purpose is to identify the risks of bank real estate loans so as to make a good risk prevention plan.

Pressure test does not mean that mortgage policy may change.

The CBRC has previously said that the "various scenarios of real estate pressure tests do not represent the real estate market trend of the CBRC, nor do it represent a possible change in the real estate credit policy".

From the 2010 annual report of the listed banks that have disclosed the annual report, the balance of personal housing loans of banks is basically 10% to 20% of the total loan balance. The real estate development loans generally remain at the level of 5% to 10%, and the bad rate of real estate related loans is relatively low.

In the 2010 bank annual report briefing, the top four executives of industry, agriculture, China and construction all indicated that the bad rate of real estate loans was low and the overall quality was controllable.