Short Term Cotton Prices Difficult To Return To The Previous Bull Market

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The quotation of yarn market continued to decline, the market was sluggish, and with the coming of the off-season, the market remained weak.

The weekly average price of China's cotton price index (CC Index328) was 26260 yuan / ton, 1161 yuan lower than the previous week, 229 yuan 27064 yuan / ton, or 1145 yuan; 527 level 24506 yuan / ton, or 1184 yuan.

In the same period, the electronic matching volume reduced the warehouse, and the center of gravity rebounded slightly.

First, domestic spot: spot prices temporarily stabilized, and the acquisition market suffered cotton farmers' reluctant sale.

Since mid November, the relevant departments of the state have introduced regulatory policies continuously.

Last week, the average price of China's cotton price index on behalf of domestic cotton spot prices continued to decline, and the market turnover was still not ideal.

Last week, spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the market turnover was relatively light. With the continuous trading of foreign electronic disks, the domestic electronic disk began to rebound at 25000 yuan / ton line. The spot market began to pick up, and the spot quotation stabilized. However, the turnover was still not ideal, and the market was still observing the current price adjustment.

The yarn market continues to be sluggish. Many manufacturers have not yet changed their prices in order to get the goods shipped as soon as possible, but the actual paction price has already been discounted. According to the feedback from the information providers, the orders of the downstream manufacturers are less, and the shipping difficulties are not good enough. This also brings enormous pressure to the yarn market.

The pick-up price of seed cotton has been raised by the price of electronic disk and spot, and the purchase price of seed cotton has risen from the previous few days, but the sale situation is not ideal.

Although the purchase price of seed cotton has risen, it is still lower than the previous high price. Cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, and many cotton growers say they want to sell again after a year.

In the early days, if the cotton traders with high price and large purchase are losing money now, they will not be sold for the time being, and some cotton traders will directly cooperate with the 200 factories to process the lint and sell them, so as to reduce the risk.

Two, electronic matching: volume reduction, the center of gravity shifted upward.

Last week, the national cotton trading market made a total of 99100 tons of electronic cotton matchmaking pactions, an increase of 3800 tons compared with the previous week.

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The volume of pactions has been enlarged over the previous week, and the daily turnover has been maintained at more than twenty thousand tons; the weekly volume of orders has continued to decrease, and the MA contract volume has decreased continuously compared with the previous week, of which the MA1101 contract reduction is the largest, at 20000 tons or more, and the MA110 contract reduction is at least 180 tons in the far month; three, when the highest price in the weekly stock market is MA1012, the contract price is 27495 yuan, and the lowest price is the MA1103 contract 23900 yuan (328B), except for the contract MA1011 in recent months, the other contract price is kept at 25000 yuan line; four, when the weekly average price of the MA contract is rising, the average price rebounded upward, near strong and far weaker, and the average price of MA1011 week in the recent month was 26549 yuan / ton, which was higher than the CC Index328 class cotton 26549 yuan / ton in the past two months. The following are the characteristics of the week's turnover: first, the weekly turnover increased, and the volume of the volume in the early week continued last week, and the daily turnover was maintained at more than ten thousand tons. With the rise of the electronic disk after two days, it became a success.

Three, the international market: purchasing power, cotton futures continuous trading.

Affected by the news of India's reduction in production, this week's ICE cotton contract opened on the first day of the opening day, and the buying activity was active in the next few days, and selling light was the reason for the continuous increase in the cotton market. At the same time, the sharp rise in the options market also provided support. On Thursday, the US cotton export weekly showed that the signing of the US cotton contract and the active shipment were good news for the market.

On the periphery, dollar weakness fell, grain and crude oil strengthened to boost cotton market.

The weekly average price of ICE cotton contract in December was 132.07 cents / pound, up 14.46 cents / pound from the previous week, and 122.62 cents per week in March, 8.16 cents higher than the previous week. Meanwhile, the average price of the international cotton spot price Cotlook index was 148.83 cents / pound, 0.64 cents higher than the previous week.

Four: Market Outlook

From the perspective of state regulation, this regulation has achieved initial success. However, a slight decline in output this year has resulted in a tight supply and demand situation. Some cotton imports will continue to be available in the next few years, and the supply of cotton will be eased during the year. In addition, at the end of the central economic work conference, the market is expected to raise interest rates at the end of the year, and many factors will affect cotton prices in the short term.

Because the yarn market is difficult to sell at present, the stock of cotton mill is large, while the downstream purchase and order are not ideal.