People Say ICE Cotton: The Cotton Is &Nbsp Higher; The Foundation Has Not Yet Been Built.

Short back up

China's cotton price rise and the end of the month supplement made ICE cotton stronger for two consecutive days, but the strong appreciation of the US dollar suppressed the rally. On Tuesday evening, the cotton contract in March only gained 1.58 cents to 117.34 cents / pound, and cotton prices showed a downward trend. China is still a key factor in the trend of cotton prices in March.

At present, the market still does not have any good news. China's price regulation continues to suppress many popularity. Whether cotton prices can rise or fall still need further confirmation. Cautious inflation is appropriate.

Technically, overnight ICE cotton has been closed for two consecutive days, although the short term moving average continues downward and the mid term average line continues to fall short, but the short-term KD index is formed in the low position of adhesion, while the MACD index green column begins to shorten, and the cotton price has a strong trend. The short line is expected to continue to rebound. If the March contract can break through 119 cents / pound pressure level, the uplink target will reach 125 cents / pound.

domestic

The foundation behind continuous progress is not solid.

Overnight US economic data are relatively good for the fear of the European financial crisis.

In the international market, the The Conference Board announced that the US consumer confidence index in November was 54.1 points, which exceeded market expectations. In November, Chicago's PMI was 62.5, more than 60.6 in October, a record high since April.

But after the rumors that China might raise interest rates and the disappointing employment figures released in Japan, the risk appetite of the global market has been suppressed. The US dollar led hedging investment tool has been sought after. Gold has risen sharply, while crude oil has fallen sharply, agricultural products have risen slightly, and soft commodity sugar has fallen sharply.

Cotton, ICE cotton rose for second consecutive trading days. However, the higher the institutional analysis day, the more the Chinese disk, and the end of the month, the other factors such as macro factors still affect the cotton trend in the short term.

The Domestic Securities Regulatory Commission said yesterday that it further strengthened the supervision of the futures market, and resolutely suppressed excessive speculation and drew up further initiatives. Zheng cotton yesterday opened its door and started to rebound in the afternoon, and the overall fluctuation of commodities led to a rebound. The intra day fluctuation was magnified. There was a willingness to build a flat platform near the 60 day moving average. On the same day, the volume of trading was increased, and the number of positions increased in September. The new capital entered the market and led to a stronger price. On the basic side, the whole industrial chain was in a stalemate, buying and selling was slack, and all parties remained on the sidelines.

Operation policy risks remain high, short selling is still the main idea, good capital management.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

Cotton stabilization and recovery, policy pressure rebound limited space

ICE cotton futures continued to rise on Tuesday. The most active March contract rose 158 points to close at 1.1734 U.S. dollars. Recently, the rebound of cotton is still a continuation of the adjustment market. China's domestic cotton futures show signs of stabilization. The current market also hyped India's cotton production and export restrictions. The fund is still optimistic about the overall supply shortage of cotton and the fundamentals of inventory reduction, waiting for the opportunity to pull up, while the US dollar index continues to rise sharply, which will have a greater impact on the rise of cotton, and the cotton market will still be adjusted in the short term.

The price of domestic cotton futures in recent months is far higher than that in the last month, and the decline in recent months is smaller than that in the far months. This has benefited from the support from the stock market. From the current point of view, it is difficult for the zhengmian 1101 contract to fall below the 25000 line. At present, the main force is increasing substantially, and the trend of price rise is going to stabilize and rebound. However, under the pressure of policy, it is hard to push again, and the current cotton downstream products are trading lightly, and the short supply of cotton is expected to increase.

It is expected that there will be a certain rebound in Zheng cotton futures, but the possibility of repeated market will be greater.