2010 Macro-Economy Shows Four Positive Signals

The national economic operation data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the Ministry of industry and Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently showed that the growth rate of industry, investment and exports had declined to some extent, which triggered some concerns about economic growth in July.

However, experts pointed out that China is now in a critical period of transition from rapid economic growth to stable growth. Economic indicators A proper drop in growth rate will help prevent the economy from turning to overheating and accelerating the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development mode.

In fact, while actively promoting structural adjustment while maintaining growth, it has made the macro-economy show four positive signals, such as the growth rate of the high energy consuming industries, the balanced development of regional economy, the effective startup of private investment, and the further optimization of the export structure.

Slowdown in high energy consuming industries

Statistics Bureau data show that in July the national scale above Industry The added value increased by 13.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points from last month. Industrial growth rate dropped from 20.7% at the beginning of the year to 13.4% in July, and some people are worried about economic development. However, according to the Statistics Bureau, 70% of the 0.3 percentage points of the industrial growth rate dropped in July, 70% of which were caused by the decline of the growth rate of the six high energy consuming industries.

According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information, the growth rate of the high energy consumption industry has indeed dropped significantly. Data show that in the first half of this year, the added value of the six high energy consuming industries increased by 17.2% over the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 2.4 percentage points over the first quarter, and the growth rate dropped 0.4 percentage points faster than that of all industries.

Among them, petroleum processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry increased by 13.4%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 18.5%, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased by 17.7%, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry increased by 19%, down 3.7, 3.1, 2 and 5.3 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter.

The growth rate of the six high energy consuming industries is slowing down, which is the result of active regulation by the state. Since the two quarter of this year, the state has increased the supervision of energy conservation and emission reduction and the elimination of backward production capacity. In addition, the state has adopted a series of measures to control the new projects of high energy consuming industries, implement differential electricity prices, adjust or cancel the export tax rebate rate of some high energy consuming products, and Zhang Weihua, deputy director of the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of statistics, believes that these policies play a significant role in inhibiting the excessive growth of high energy consuming industries.

　　 export structure More optimization

The appreciation of the renminbi, the rising cost of raw materials and the weakening of the policy pulling effect were reflected in the export data in July. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, the export volume and import and export value of China in July have reached a record high, but the growth rate has continued to show a downward trend.

Regarding this, Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out that although the export growth rate is gradually declining, its recovery is still relatively strong on the whole, and this is also the result of speeding up the structural adjustment of foreign trade and the transformation of development mode.

The reporter understands that the Ministry of Commerce has positioned its work in 2010 to "protect share, adjust structure and promote balance", and speed up the adjustment of foreign trade structure and the transformation of development mode, and this goal is gradually being implemented.

In accelerating the adjustment of foreign trade structure and the transformation of development mode, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said that we should focus on cultivating a number of export bases and state-level design centers for agricultural textiles, automobiles and spare parts, high-tech products, and actively explore the export channels for independent marketing. While consolidating the traditional market, we should intensify our efforts to expand the emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, central and Eastern Europe, South Asia and the Middle East, and strictly control the export of "two high and one capital" products.

These goals have been reflected in the past 7 months. Data show that 1-7 months, the main US, European and Japanese markets steady growth in foreign trade, China and ASEAN, and other emerging markets, foreign trade has also risen sharply. Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, said that export growth is accelerating, especially in the emerging market.

In controlling the export of "two high and one capital" products, supporting policies have also been introduced. Since July 15th, the export tax rebates of 406 tax number commodities, including some steel and non-ferrous metal processing materials, have been abolished, and this adjustment is aimed at ensuring the achievement of energy saving and emission reduction targets.

"Adjustment will help to push forward the transformation of the development mode of foreign trade." The Ministry of Commerce said that canceling the export tax rebate rate of some products reflects the policy intention of the state to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and promote the transformation of foreign trade development mode. It is conducive to guiding enterprises to optimize their product mix, improve the quality and grade of export products, and guide enterprises to improve the level of intensive and deep processing, and promote the export of low carbon emissions and energy saving and environmental protection products.

As a decisive battle to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction in 11th Five-Year, the completion of emission reduction tasks through various means and ways will undoubtedly become the direction of ministries and commissions. The reporter understands that the relevant ministries and commissions in the second half of this year may continue to carry out the necessary tax rebate adjustment for some industries with high energy consumption and high pollution in accordance with the national strategy for energy conservation and emission reduction. In addition, according to the introduction, a guiding opinion on accelerating the transformation of the development mode of foreign trade is expected to come out as soon as possible.