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People Say ICE Cotton: 80 Cents Encounter Resistance (8.5)

2010/8/5 16:23:00 30

ICE cotton

Resistance fell, but the rally did not change.

Overnight, although most of the basic commodities continued to rise, the ICE cotton contract reached a maximum of 79.95 cents per pound in December. But the market doubtful about whether the cotton price could break through 80 cents / pound pressure level. Finally, cotton price suffered more single profits and trade hedging selling on the line, and the contract closed down 0.33 cents to 79.47 cents / pound in December.

The US cotton registered inventory continued to decrease to 9030 tons, the lowest since 2004. Meanwhile, the USDA weekly announced that the export weekly report may continue to benefit cotton prices. In the case of the above two favorable factors and the external commodity prices remain strong, ICE cotton breakthrough 80 cents / pound continues to rise, the probability is still great, it is recommended to keep the long thinking unchanged.

Technically, overnight ICE cotton is down and the small shade cross is closed. The December contract continues to challenge the 80 cent / pound integer pressure level while the cotton price is far from the short-term average and the technical side has the possibility of a callback.

However, the short term moving average continues to go up through the mid term average line and continues to rise in a row. The KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a long way. The MACD index continues to grow, and the rally will continue. In 12, if we can successfully break through the 80 cents / pound line pressure level, the uplink target will reach 84-87 cents / pound.

Zheng cotton yesterday opened up and walked down the small Yin.

market

Suffer from many single profit selling pressure, as domestic yarn prices continue to fall, the market generally believe that the United States cotton will be in the 80 cents / pound line callback, which led investors to catch up with the desire is not strong, no popularity and financial support, zhengmian the trend of slowing down.

But it is expected that as the new cotton market is approaching, the price difference between new and old cotton will be larger. If ICE cotton can break through 80 cents per pound, Zheng cotton will continue to climb. It is suggested that after the trend has not changed, it will continue to hold Zheng cotton more than single line, with a short-term target of 16900 yuan / ton line, and raise more single stop loss to 16600 yuan / ton line.

(Wanda futures Du Ying)

High position waiting for a breakthrough?

Last night, the international market continued to show strong strength. The US dollar ended and continued to fall and the commodity group went up. Among them, the performance of agricultural products was eye-catching, and the basic information of ICE cotton was calm. The market was mainly affected by technology, capital and the surrounding market, and it was adjusted after a continuous rise. It was gaining momentum in the past 2 years.

Overnight America

equity market

High volume and light volume, but economic data show that private sector employment is rising and service sector expansion is faster than expected, raising investor confidence, while investors are waiting for a crucial July report on non farm payrolls to be released on Friday.

Judging from the current global market investment climate, China's stock market adjustment has triggered a global market in a wait-and-see view, but investment confidence has been increasing. Especially in agricultural products, Russia suffers from extreme drought, which seriously affects grain production this year. The latest estimate is likely to reach 70 million tons and the output of 98 million tons in the previous year. In addition, China and Pakistan and other countries suffered floods, which further stimulated market confidence. Cotton, the second phase of the international cotton trade in the middle of June this year is facing the pressure of the technical resistance zone in the 2 years. Once the burst is broken, the upward space is expected to open in the near future, and special attention needs to be paid.

Zheng cotton yesterday continued to reduce its position in the past month, and it continued to move higher and lower.

Those who are cautious in their operations will be able to see the profits in stages, and the trend is still upward.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

US cotton high concussion

Yesterday, although the grain market is still rising, ICE cotton futures after the shock rose after 80 cents in the vicinity of the resistance, selling pressure led to a fall in cotton prices.

Analysts believe that although the decline in registered inventory is beneficial to cotton prices, the pressure of technology graphics can not be ignored. The December contract will continue to be at a high level.

The spot market has entered the traditional off-season of textile industry at present, and the sales volume of textile products is falling. In the face of the constantly changing market of gauze, plus raw material inventory is higher than in previous years, textile enterprises are particularly cautious about raw material procurement. The spot market purchase and sales remain light, and some hoarding cotton enterprises are actively shipping, resulting in the fact that the spot price is a small profit margin.

Taking into account the July 27th national development and Reform Commission and other departments to discuss the issue of dumping and storage, in mid August will throw 600 thousand tons of national cotton reserves, Zheng cotton in the short term may show a situation of rising fatigue.

At present, the sharp rise in the September contract has attracted the attention of the relevant departments. In order to make the price pition smoothly in the new and old year, the attitude of the state to take control measures is clear. The accelerated rise of the contract in September is likely to turn into a slight decline and a very tight position.

The new year contract will more reflect the basic situation, and the active shift of multi funds will become one of the reasons for the limited price drop.

(Changjiang futures Wang Jian)