Wen Jiabao Talked About Economic Regulation And Trade Surplus In The Second Half Of The Year 2

First Financial Daily reported that despite the impact of last year's cardinal effect, it is obvious that the effect of domestic macro-control policies has emerged.

This year, the government strictly controlled new projects, strictly examined the financing platform for local governments, and issued real estate in the two quarter.

Data show that in the first quarter, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 25.6% compared with the same period last year, and dropped to 25% in the two quarter.

The growth rate slowed down compared with that of last year, and the growth rate in the two quarter of this year dropped 8.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

But compared with 2009, the three carriages of 2010 will be relatively balanced, with the growth of exports and consumption accelerating, and the contribution to economic growth will increase. The growth rate of investment will slow down and the contribution to economic growth will decline.

Therefore, the market generally believes that the second half of 2010 GDP growth may fall by quarter, but the possibility of the two dip is very small.

Contrary to market expectations, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.9% in June, compared with 3.1% expected in May.

The sharp decline in the price of food has become the main reason for the expansion of CPI, but heavy rain and other weather factors in June will still push CPI up.

On the whole, prices will continue to rise in the short term and meet in the three quarter, the second half of the year.

It is worth noting that uncertainty has become the key word in the second half year.

From the perspective of economic growth, there are many uncertainties in the international and domestic economic operation, and the risk of domestic economic downturn is increasing. From the point of inflationary pressure, the European debt crisis has reduced the impact of imported inflation, but the structural rise in prices may still be prominent in some time periods.

In line with the complex situation, the macroeconomic regulation and control policy in the second half of this year is expected to continue to adhere to the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, so as to enhance flexibility and pertinence.

According to the financial data released by the central bank in the first half of the year, the M2 growth rate has dropped to 18.5%, nearly 17% of the policy target for the whole year. In 5 and June, foreign exchange holdings have dropped significantly, and the pressure of capital inflow has slowed down. 4 trillion and 630 billion of the credit delivery has basically fallen into the control of the regulatory authorities.

Based on the above data, quantitative tools will still be the first choice of the central bank in terms of monetary policy.

At the same time, as the economic downside risks increase,

From the capital side, the central bank has achieved net capital investment for eight consecutive weeks.

But this week the volume dropped significantly, and the 3 - year central bank set a new high of 160 billion yuan.

At the same time, the winning rate of the 3 - year central bank is 3 basis points of the previous period, which shows that the tension of the capital market has been reversed and the market demand has gradually stabilized.

Analysts believe that with the easing of liquidity tension, the central bank is expected to resume the return of funds.

In the second half of the year, the capital side will be neutral.