The Fund Is Popular In The Market Because Of Its Excellent Performance In Holding Stocks

Institutions are in the forefront of the storm.

In the beginning of 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index soared, crossing the 3500 and 3600 levels. The CSI 300 index rose from 5211 to 5930, surpassing the record high of 5891 in 2007, and blue chips came out of the strong upward market.

The fund is popular in the market because of its excellent performance in holding large stocks.

According to the data of flush, there were 39 new development funds "sunlight base" in January, and on January 11 alone, five popular products attracted more than 100 billion yuan.

Moreover, after the four seasons report of the fund, the first fund manager with a management scale of 100 billion was born.

However, after the opening of the market on February 18, the style of the market changed dramatically. Baotuan stocks, represented by liquor, fell by 20% in six trading days, and the market value of 500 billion disappeared.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, the net value of many star funds fell by more than 10% simultaneously. For a time, it became the existence of investors' panic.

It's a good idea to make money together. How can it go wrong?

Breaking the "star faith" of investors

"No surprise."

On February 25, Hu Yu, partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo asset management company, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the cumulative increase of group stocks in the past two years has been too large, the valuation has been on the track in history, and there is greater pressure to adjust, "the adjustment is normal."

According to choice statistics, as of the end of February 24, Guizhou Maotai fell 16%, its market value fell by 354.248 billion yuan, Wuliangye's market value by 156.895 billion yuan, Longji shares by 15% and BYD by 22%.

Heavy positions in their mutual funds also suffered heavy losses.

Among the star fund managers, e-fund's Zhang Kun was jokingly called "the world's three famous wineries: Romani conti, Lafite and e-fund" because of his heavy position in liquor stocks

On February 24, the net value of e fund's medium and small cap and e fund's blue chip selection decreased by 4.5% and 5.13%, respectively. In the past week, the net value of e fund's medium and small cap market fell by 11.74%, and the net value of e fund's blue chip selection fell by 11.34%, both of which ranked the bottom 1 / 5 among similar funds.

The 21st century economic report reporters read the public information and learned that as of December 31, 2020, the top ten heavy positions of e-fund were Guizhou Maotai, Yanghe shares, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, Tongce medical, meinian health, Supor, Shanghai airport, Yutong Bus and Tiantan biology; the top 10 heavy positions of e fund blue chip were Guizhou Maotai, meituan-w and Yangyang He shares, Tencent holdings, Wuliangye, Hong Kong stock exchange, Luzhou Laojiao, Hikvision, Aier Ophthalmology, Yihai international.

The market value of Guizhou Maotai, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye and Yanghe shares accounted for nearly 40% of the fund net value.

In fact, "love to drink" is not Zhang Kun's only good. In recent years, many star fund managers have a preference for liquor stocks. Wang Zonghe of Penghua Fund is one of them.

Among the top ten heavy positions at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, liquor stocks also accounted for 4, respectively Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu and gujinggong liquor. The net value of class A shares of the fund fell by 11.12% in the past week.

In addition, there are Jing Shun Great Wall Fund Manager Liu Yanchun, many of its funds are also heavily in liquor stocks.

For example, Jingshun Great Wall's emerging growth. As of December 31, 2020, the top ten heavy positions of Jingshun Great Wall's emerging growth mix were China immune, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Mindray medical, Hengrui pharmaceutical, Chenguang stationery, Haida group, gujinggong liquor and Midea Group. Liquor stocks accounted for nearly 30% of the net fund value.

From the allocation point of view, Jingshun Great Wall's emerging growth, in addition to heavy positions in liquor, the rest of the heavy positions are also mainly fund group stocks, such as China immune, Hengrui pharmaceutical, Midea Group, etc.

The fund fell 14.13% in the latest week, the bottom of the same category.

"It's not stable to outperform the market with a group of stocks." Qu Hongyu and Qi Yanran, researchers of Minsheng securities, drew a conclusion after counting the performance of Baotuan stock portfolio from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2020.

It believes that, compared with the China Securities full index, group funds began to obtain stable excess returns after 2017, and began to accelerate in 2019. Compared with the active stock based index, group funds did not get significant excess returns.

It is worth noting that the above fund positions for the end of the fourth quarter data, do not rule out the possibility of intermediate positions.

Soochow Fund insiders believe that there are differences between the actual net worth and net worth estimates of these super funds with a scale of over 10 billion, which is definitely due to the change in the position structure, but it is impossible to turn around completely. "The operation of the fund in the early stage should be to sell while rising, and now it is to adjust while falling."

When falling and adjusting?

While the market fell, fund positions also adjusted.

According to the observation of fund net value and valuation deviation degree, among the 550 ordinary stock funds included in the statistics, as of the closing of February 23, there were 107 stocks whose absolute value of the deviation degree of the rise and fall of the net value and valuation was within 0.2%, 95 stocks had the deviation degree above 1%, and 64 had the deviation degree below - 1%.

A calculation data from Societe Generale Securities also confirmed the above judgment.

Last week, the average position of partial stock active fund was 74.35%, of which the average position of common stock fund was about 88.45%, down 0.24% from the previous period; the average position of partial stock mixed fund was about 86.07%, up 0.01% compared with the previous period.

Specifically, about 33.06% of the general equity funds increased their positions, 35.51% decreased their positions, and 31.43% kept their positions unchanged.

The tracking data of institutional seats on the dragon and tiger list can be used to infer the specific details. Among the 24 stocks with net sales of more than 100 million in the past month, there were several group stocks such as Tongce medical, Hualan biology and Engel.

Among them, Tongce medical institutions had the largest net sales, with a total of 1.246 billion yuan; Zijin Mining ranked second with a net sales of 1 billion yuan, while the remaining 22 individual stock institutions such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Hualan biology Co., Ltd. and aixu Co., Ltd. had a net sales volume of less than 1 billion yuan.

In the last month, there were 43 stocks with a net purchase amount of more than 100 million yuan. The top three stocks were Shaanxi black cat, Huayou cobalt and goer, with net purchases of less than 1 billion yuan.

"Liquor, medicine, new energy and other sectors are the fourth quarter of last year more than a few plate positions." He Yiguang, the fund manager of Great Wall Fund, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

He said frankly, because he did not want to be too far away from the market, nor too close to it, so it allocated some mainstream market sectors and some non mainstream sectors, "the wine that has risen much has already had some reduction in warehouse, focusing on undervalued or small and medium-sized market value."

Zhong Zhaomin, chairman of Dongfang marathon, said, "for long-term products, we will hold full positions most of the time. When we are particularly overvalued or undervalued, we will reduce or increase our positions; for robust products, we believe that we need to balance investment returns and withdraw. Pullback is not an investment risk, but may be an operational risk. The most effective way to control the withdrawal is to select individual stocks and moderately control positions. The in-depth study of individual stocks is the best risk control and the foundation of management withdrawal. The stock price fluctuates around the intrinsic value for a long time. We will increase the position when the stock price is lower than the intrinsic value and reduce the position when the stock price is higher than a certain proportion of the intrinsic value based on the pre-made and dynamically updated trading schedule. Based on this, we have recently reduced the holdings of some stocks which are particularly overvalued in robust products. "

A new faith in holding together

There is nothing new under the sun. In the United States on the other side of the ocean, it is normal for institutions to gather together.

According to statistics released by some research institutions, if the U.S. stocks with more than 80% of the institutional shares are regarded as institutional heavy positions, the institutional positions in the US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50% in the past 20 years.

In the past ten years, the number of holding institutions and the proportion of shares held by leading companies are significantly higher than those of non leading companies.

Although U.S. stock institutions will move towards cyclical industries in stages, they will always concentrate on consumption and growth in the long run, especially information technology and optional consumption since 2007.

Yan Xiang, a researcher at Guoxin Securities, believes that high concentration of fund holdings is the norm. Compared with history, the current degree of group holding is not particularly exaggerated. What is more exaggerated is that the valuation of the fund's heavily held stocks is very high. Compared with the market as a whole, the median earnings ratio of the top 100 stocks held by public funds has far exceeded the peak in 2015.

In fact, the fund's heavy holdings have been changing with the boom.

For example, in the current era of efficient information dissemination, it is very normal for institutions to reach a high degree of agreement on the quality of the company. Whether the group shares change or not depends on the business cycle, and has nothing to do with whether or not the group itself.

According to the recent strategies of more than 10 mainstream institutions, 90% of them, such as Guotai Junan, CICC and China Merchants Fund, are optimistic about the future A-share market. They believe that the improvement of fundamentals and liquidity has not reversed. They also give suggestions on the pro cyclical layout.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund points out that the overall A-share market is still on the rise. In the long run, it will continue to focus on high-quality consumption and technology leaders. In the first half of the year, it will also focus on the allocation opportunities of finance, cycle and optional consumption under the pro cyclical logic.

Huabao fund, however, believes that the core logic of this round of market decline is that some trading congested plates are overvalued and are now in the middle of a bull market. For the future market, the overall direction of asset allocation is to moderately switch from "group stocks" with high valuations to mid cap stocks with reasonable valuations and favorable prosperity.