Crack Down On China And Contain China

After the beginning of September yarn price stop falling, this week continued to climb slowly. As of September 17, cy c32s pure cotton yarn reported 18520 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Xinjiang cotton futures were closed on the weekend with the main cotton futures of 1249 tons. However, with the suspension of this week's ban, cotton returned to "normal" in only a few days. As of September 17, cc3128b cotton index reported 12636 yuan / ton, while cf2101 contract returned to 12780 yuan / ton. After the arrival of "golden nine", the cotton yarn market continued to warm up. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises, which had been falling to the low point of nearly three years, has risen sharply in the past two weeks, and is now at about 30 days, more than the same period last year.

In terms of cotton yarn and grey fabric market, the effect of de stocking in September was significant. As of September 17, China's yarn inventory and grey cloth inventory index closed for 23.2 days and 29.3 days respectively, both close to the same period last year. In terms of start-up, textile enterprises have a small rise, which is currently maintained at about 51%, while grey cloth has risen more obviously, from about 40% to 51.7%. Specifically, affected by the sharp drop in international crude oil a week ago and the US export restrictions on cotton products containing Xinjiang, many downstream customers have strong willingness to pay for yarn after the sharp fall in cotton prices, which is unacceptable. Some textile enterprises have taken measures to be reluctant to sell. Some textile enterprises have indicated that if cotton yarn sales do not improve before the national day and Mid Autumn Festival, they will take holiday measures Wait and see.

In terms of imported yarn, after experiencing a rapid rise, it began to stabilize recently. As of September 17, FCY index c32s closed at 18620 yuan / ton. From the point of view of the start-up of various countries, except for Pakistan, Vietnam and India have increased. At present, Vietnam's power on is 68% and Pakistan's is 80%. India's power on load is the fastest. India, which is still at 56% of the startup load at the end of July, has recovered to 80%. The author believes that the number of people infected by the global epidemic to nearly 100000 per day in fiscal year 2020 will not be able to catch up with the total number of people infected by the global economy to close to 100000 in 2020. After all, India will not be able to catch up with the total number of people infected by the global economy. It is worth noting that experts predicted only 4% in June.

    Internationally, the news coverage impact of the US ban on Xinjiang cotton is far greater than its actual impact. In the first half of 2020, the amount of clothing imported by the United States from China decreased by 49%, while that from Vietnam only decreased by 11.1%, and even the price of clothing imported from Cambodia increased by 3.4%, indicating that even if trump and the US government did not shelve the ban on Xinjiang cotton import, they would still adopt the In order to reduce the trade deficit, suppress China's manufacturing industry and curb China's rise, a series of other "dark box" and covert means are adopted to prevent China's textile and clothing exports to the United States. Therefore, whether the ban is shelved or not, the process of Southeast Asian countries' textile and clothing products replacing Chinese products is not "reversible". However, there is no need to worry at home. Take Vietnam for example, the recent signing of the EU Vietnam free trade agreement is likely to promote Vietnam to become a "factory of the new world". However, it is a pity that Vietnam's industrial chain is not complete. In the first half of this year, due to the shutdown of China's epidemic situation, many factories in Vietnam were unable to start work due to lack of raw materials. On the other hand, the lack of electricity is also their biggest weakness. At present, they are still using coal for power generation. Coal is scarce. Japan, which has been supporting them, has been directly declared after many national responsibilities Bu no longer supports Vietnam. At present, there are only a few countries remaining in Vietnam's electricity import, and China is their main importing country. Let alone whether we will lend a helping hand (Vietnam bought 2.1 billion kwh of electricity from China last year), if this problem is not solved, Vietnam will never become the "factory of the world".