The Market Is Falling Apart And Cotton Prices Are Bottomless.

In March 16th, ICE cotton futures dived again under the high pressure of the new crown virus outbreak. Because the global epidemic is out of control, all countries in the world have closed their social activities venues, and business and economy have been greatly affected, and market confidence is nearly collapsing. Reports about the rush to buy supermarkets, bars and restaurants have been reported repeatedly, and all kinds of sports events have been cancelled. The CDC warned us residents to stay at home and cancel more than 50 meetings at least in the next two months.

President Trump tried to stabilize market sentiment at a press conference on Sunday, so that the whole country believed that things would get better, but it also confirmed that things could be worse. Trump administration officials have developed a nationwide testing plan that will not put pressure on hospitals and clinics. At the same time, the Fed unexpectedly cut the federal funds rate to the target area of 0-0.25%, and announced the support policy of $700 billion, which is actually a quantitative easing.

All contracts for ICE futures are under 60 cents, including the December 2020 contract. This year, futures contracts for ICE futures have fallen by nearly 11 cents, or 15%. The US Department of agriculture's forecast of cotton planting area will be released by the end of this month. Because of the rapid spread of the new crown virus, no matter how much the area is predicted, the market is skeptical about its effectiveness. Although the price of cotton is lower than the cost of planting and financing is difficult, the cotton farmers in the United States should continue to grow and expect good results.

In March 16th, the US Dow Jones index opened more than ten minutes late, due to the fact that the price at the bidding stage has been broken. The continued collapse of the stock market has brought enormous pressure on cotton prices, resulting in all ICE futures contracts falling below 60 cents, and only 6 weeks ago were all above 70 cents. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell too much, the underlying fundamentals of the cotton market had become neutral. This week's US cotton export weekly report is definitely a high figure, which is much higher than the previous week. Now no one can say clearly. At present, the cotton market has been firmly controlled by the global economic recession and the macro economy. The CFTC position report released last Friday shows that the fund has sold 12600 contracts and its positions have been emptied.