The Main Tone Of The Stock Market In 2017: Accelerating The Pressure Of The Stock Market IPO Barrier Lake Flood Discharge

The Academy of Social Sciences revealed that the stock market is still in the healing stage, and there is no big play in the stock market in 2017? The financial blue book of the Academy of Social Sciences often points out the direction for the market, and each release of the blue book will also bring many references to the market. From the content analysis of the recently released financial blue book, the report points out that the market confidence in 2017 is still in the "healing" stage. "Maintaining stability and narrow volatility" will be the main tone of the stock market in 2017.

It can be seen that the report of this financial blue book actually indicates that the Academy of Social Sciences is still cautious and optimistic about the performance of the stock market this year. However, considering the reconstruction after the stock disaster and the restoration of investment confidence, the market continues to maintain a stable state, which may be the best result. This is not only conducive to reducing the occurrence of systematic risks in the stock market, but also creates a space for sustainable development for the financing function of the stock market, which is conducive to accelerating the stock market IPO The pressure of flood discharge from the barrier lake.

Reviewing the report and forecast of the blue book of the Academy of Social Sciences in the past two years, it has basically obtained market reference. However, looking back at the forecast reports of the previous two years, although the overall performance of the market was roughly in line with expectations, it was still difficult to avoid a certain forecast deviation in the specific operating range.

Taking the 2015 Blue Book report as an example, the report said that we are on the edge of a bull market, and the good environment for China's economic restructuring is also tending to form. The adjustment itself will enter a good situation in 2015, while the Blue Book said that the securities market will usher in a slow bull market of a certain scale in 2015.

Looking back at the performance of the stock market in 2015, the first half of the year was basically in line with the forecast of the report, but the rising pace significantly exceeded the market expectations. However, no one seems to have predicted that in the second half of 2015, there was an unpredictable stock disaster in the stock market. In just a few months, the Shanghai Index fell from a high of 5178 to a low of 2638 at the beginning of 2016, with a huge cumulative decline.

Taking the Blue Book report of 2016 as an example, the Blue Book predicts that the Shanghai Composite Index will fluctuate between 3200 and 4000 points in 2016, which is worth expecting. A year later, looking back at the performance of the stock market in 2016, the annual fluctuation range was 2638 to 3538, but excluding the impact of the hasty end of the circuit breaker mechanism at the beginning of the year, the core operating area of the stock market in the year was actually 2850 to 3300.

On the whole, although Fusing After the impact, the stock market basically maintained a "slow bull" pattern of steady growth, but there was still some deviation from the blue book index fluctuation forecast within 3200-4000 points. This also confirms that the stock market is unpredictable, but the Blue Book report is still worth our reference.

Up to now, 2017 has gone through three months, and the market performance of the previous quarter shows a typical pattern of "Shanghai strong, deep and weak". However, it basically remained stable and the volatility continued to decrease, which also confirmed that the stock market is still in the stage of "healing".

In fact, in the past year, the volatility of China's stock market has shown obvious signs of decline. In 2017, the stock market volatility fell to the freezing point. Data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has declined by no more than 1% for more than 60 consecutive trading days, equity market A decline of more than 1% can already be regarded as a slight decline, but up to now, a decline of more than 1% has been regarded as a sharp decline in the market.

Indeed, for 2017, which is full of uncertainty, maintaining the stability of the stock market is indeed of strategic significance. At the same time, after 15 years of stock disaster and the impact of the circuit breaker mechanism's hasty ending in early 2016, the current Chinese stock market can no longer bear too much pressure and risk. In the recent period, the volatility of the stock market has continued to decrease, and the daily average rise and fall of the stock market has significantly narrowed, which also reflects the strong wait-and-see sentiment of the market, and the highly leveraged capital instruments that leverage the market's investment vitality in the early stage have basically been cleaned up by the market.

The persistently low market volatility, the continuous narrowing of the average daily rise and fall, the continuous downturn of the average daily trading volume of the stock market and the difficulty in sustaining the market earning effect are also true portrayals of the recent stock market. In 2017, the stock market maintained this operating feature, although maintaining the stability of the market and greatly reducing the systematic risk of the market, the market was too dull, It is easy to continuously reduce the investment vitality of the stock market.

However, according to the signals released by the market, the stock market is still in the process of "healing", and achieving a steady rise may be the best result. However, the overall probability of expecting a sharp rise in the stock market in the year is not high. Perhaps, for investors, the difficulty of making money in the stock market this year has also increased again. Relying on a certain stock market value, or even sticking to low price blue chips with high stability and stable dividend yield for a long time, to complete the goal of subscribing for new shares may be the most secure and profitable investment strategy this year.

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