Forecast Of Textile Industry'S Economic Situation In 2016

Since 2015

Production continued to decline, domestic consumption continued to slump.

Compared with last year, the overall decline.

In 2016, there were positive factors such as the expected improvement of the global economy, and the adverse factors such as the domestic macro-economic downturn and domestic demand being sluggish. But on the whole, problems such as labor difficulties, overcapacity and environmental pressures will still restrict the development of the textile industry, and the downward pressure on textile production will continue to increase.

From the perspective of industrial value added growth, the added value of the textile industry increased by 6.6% in the first three quarters of 2015, and the growth rate continued to slow down, down 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.

From the point of view of industry, the slowdown of textile industry is mainly due to the obvious decline in the textile and apparel industry, which only increased by 4.7% compared with the same period last year.

Manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% and 11.1% respectively.

The output of the main products is that the yarn growth rate has dropped, while the chemical fiber and cloth have increased. In the first three quarters of 2015, the chemical fiber, cloth and yarn increased by 10.9%, 3.3% and 4.7% respectively.

Entering the 2016, the downward pressure on domestic economy will increase, consumption demand growth will also slow down, and the growth rate of textile industry production is not optimistic.

From the perspective of global economy, the export of China's textile industry will be warmer.

According to IMF forecasts, the global GDP growth rate in 2016 was 3.6%, higher than 0.5 percentage points in 2015. In 2016, the growth rate of China's textile exports in the key regions of the European Union, the United States and Japan was 2.8%, 1.9% and 1%, respectively, compared with 2015 years.

However, the focus of China's textile industry growth is at home. IMF predicts that China's domestic economy will slow down by 0.5 percentage points over the 2015 growth rate in 2016.

The textile industry is facing the problem of overcapacity, and the surplus situation is intensifying, especially in the chemical fiber industry.

With the support of policies, enterprises have expanded their factories and purchased equipment. Among them, most of the newly purchased equipment is imported into the world's first class production equipment, and the production capacity and level of enterprises have improved rapidly.

However, under the background that the market demand structure is difficult to change in the short term, the rapid expansion of textile production, especially the high-end production lines, has resulted in the production of low value-added products by most high-end equipment, and the low utilization rate of capacity.

According to the survey, in the newly built domestic and foreign top-ranking cotton spinning production line, the products are still mainly 30~40 yarn, and some enterprises are not fully started because of the sluggish market.

It is estimated that the growth rate of textile industry will be reduced to about 6% in 2016.

Among them, benefit from the decline in raw material prices and export orders growth, textile and chemical fiber industry production growth will be higher than this year, and textile and clothing trapped in domestic demand and high storage factors, production growth will further decline.

In the first three quarters of 2015, China's exports were not optimistic, reflecting the slowdown in international economy and import demand, and increased the variables of global economic and trade growth in 2016.

Looking forward to the industry, the Research Institute, "China textile market industry market outlook and investment strategic planning analysis report" pointed out: in 2015 1~9 months, the export value of textile industry decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 5.6, 4.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year and last year, and the export situation is more severe.

In the subdivision industry, exports of textile industry, textile and garment industry and chemical fiber industry decreased year-on-year, down 4.1, 1 and 8.7 percentage points respectively.

Entering the 2016, the export growth rate of China's textile industry will rebound, showing a positive growth trend.

On the one hand, the three traditional export markets of the United States, the European Union and Japan have improved and the demand for imports has increased.

On the other hand, the economic growth of emerging and developing countries has increased, which has brought huge room for growth in China's consumer goods exports.

According to IMF, the demand for global goods imports increased by 4.1% in 2016, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than that in 2015. The import demand of goods in developed economies, emerging markets and developing countries increased by 4% and 4.3% respectively, which were 0.3 and 2.8 percentage points higher than those in 2015.

It is estimated that the export value of textile industry will rebound to around 2% in 2016.

The export growth of three sub industries will all rebound to positive, of which textile clothing and clothing industry and chemical fiber industry export growth is more obvious.

In 2015, the temporary withdrawal and storage policy of cotton was withdrawn, accelerating the expansion of depreciation policy to the textile industry, coupled with the acceleration of industrial pfer and other factors. The growth rate of textile industry investment showed a structural differentiation trend, of which textile industry, textile and apparel industry continued to grow at a high speed, and the chemical fiber industry continued to grow at a low growth rate.

In 2015 1~9, the investment in textile industry, textile and garment industry and chemical fiber industry increased by 13.6%, 25.4% and 0.4%, respectively. Among them, the growth rate of textile and textile and garment industry investment was higher than that of last year 1 and 7.2 percentage points, while the chemical fiber industry was lower than 2.1 percentage points of the same period last year.

In 2016, the scale of investment in fixed assets of textile industry will continue to expand, but investment growth will slow down as market expectations are not optimistic.

On the one hand, as China's economic growth is in the superposition stage of the growth rate shifting period, the structural adjustment pains and the early stimulus policy digestion period, the textile industry's excess capacity will inhibit investment to a certain extent.

On the other hand, under the background of the new normal, the downward pressure on the macro-economy is increasing. The uncertainty and risk of investment in the textile industry are further increased, and the entrepreneurs' confidence is not enough.

It is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in textile industry will drop to about 10% in 2016, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in various sub sectors will also decline to varying degrees. The growth rate of investment in chemical fiber manufacturing industry is more obvious, and the growth rate is likely to suffer negative growth.

Under the backdrop of consumer demand in the whole society, textile and clothing consumption demand is also not optimistic.

In 2015 1~9, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textile products in the enterprises above Designated Size totaled 936 billion 390 million yuan, up 10.2% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the retail sales of consumer goods, and 0.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2014.

Among them, clothing retail sales totaled 664 billion 120 million yuan, up 9.7% compared to the same period last year, also lower than the same period in 2014.

Entering the 2016, domestic textile and clothing consumption demand growth is difficult.

On the one hand, as the cost of housing, medical care and education rose faster than most household income growth, it occupied the consumer's ability to consume textile and clothing products. China's textile domestic demand will remain in a doldrums for a long time.

On the other hand, the double eleven fierce price war in 2015 overdrawn ahead of time, and some textile and clothing consumption demand in 2016 will definitely affect the textile and clothing sales in the first few months of 2016.

It is estimated that the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles will be reduced to less than 10% in 2016.

Although the East is still the main area of China's textile industry layout, with the quickening of the textile industry pfer process, the central and western textile industry has been gradually improving in the whole country.

In 2015 1~9, the main business income of the central and western textile industry was 1 trillion and 113 billion 330 million yuan, accounting for 22.4% of the country's total, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period in 2014.

Entering the 2016, the status of the textile industry in the central and western regions will be further enhanced.

On the one hand, the infrastructure and industrial support in the central and western regions have been continuously improved, and the ability to undertake industries has been enhanced. Especially in the western provinces such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Ningxia, China has vigorously promoted investment, and the textile industry chain has been more sound and expanding.

On the other hand, the State Council's "medium and long term planning for the development of logistics industry (2014~2020)" and "the guidance of the general office of the State Council on the measures to tackle the problem of high financing costs" continue to push forward the logistics costs and financing costs of the central and Western regions.

However, the printing and dyeing industry is a key link in the textile industry chain, with high added value and high technical requirements. It is also a key industry for energy conservation and emission reduction and environmental protection.

Due to the continuous improvement of China's emission standards and the increasing supervision, the development space of printing and dyeing industry has been narrowed, especially in the central and western regions.

According to the water pollution discharge standard of textile dyeing and finishing industry, since January 1, 2015, the direct discharge of COD from existing printing and dyeing enterprises needs to be controlled at 80mg/L, and indirect emission control is at 200mg/L, causing some printing and dyeing enterprises to be closed.

In order to develop the entire textile industry, the vast majority of Midwest textile enterprises have to pport fabrics to Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, and then pport them back to the market. The logistics cost is high, and the printing and dyeing price lacks the right to speak. The shortage of the printing and dyeing industry chain limits the development of the textile industry in the Midwest.