The Two Most Important Factor Affecting China'S Overall Exports - The RMB Exchange Rate

Just after the new year, the newly released foreign trade data show that the situation is still not optimistic.

Both imports and exports declined in February.

Among them, the export growth rate dropped more than 20%, much higher than in January, and also exceeded.

Expect.

From a global perspective, this result is not surprising.

Under the global situation of slow recovery, China's overall exports still face greater pressure.

But from the macro policy perspective, the two most important factors affecting foreign trade, the continued stability of the RMB exchange rate and the full and timely guarantee of the export tax rebate, have been or will soon show their strength in the next three months.

Zhou Shijian, a senior researcher at the Sino US Relations Research Center at Tsinghua University, told reporters that although the external environment is really bad, with the gradual implementation of the policy, foreign trade is likely to pick up gradually after the first quarter, and exports will be positive before June.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, there is still pressure on the external demand situation.

First of all, it is the mechanical and electrical products that attract more employed population.

Exports of traditional labor-intensive products declined.

In the first 2 months, the export of China's electromechanical products dropped by 12.2%, accounting for 56.6% of the total export value.

Among them, electrical and electronic products dropped by 7.2%; machinery and equipment decreased by 12.6%.

Over the same period, clothing exports dropped by 11.8%, textiles decreased by 9.3%, footwear decreased by 17.3%, and furniture decreased by 17.8%.

From the overall export market situation, China's trade with the first largest trading partner is 516 billion 60 million yuan, down 9.7%.

The total trade between China and the second largest trading partner of the United States is 471 billion 140 million yuan, down 12.2%.

Among them, I exported 352 billion 600 million yuan to the United States, a decrease of 10.9%.

Although exports have not yet recovered, the result of a common industry judgment is that foreign trade will continue to go through a period of cold winter, and enterprises seem to have gradually adapted to it.

The two markets are facing considerable pressure of public opinion.

At present, the EU is struggling to give China a market economy status, but there will be substantial progress until the end of the year.

The United States introduced the terms of joining the iron and Steel Industry Association.

At the end of last month, President Obama signed the trade facilitation and Law Enforcement Act 2015 (TradeFacilitationandTradeEnforcementAct).

The US Department of commerce followed suit and launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on China's steel products.

"The possibility that the EU recognizes China's market economy status is not a big problem," Zhou Shijian said. "The core purpose of the US RMB exchange rate increase is to promote its own exports, and also to promote mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises to the US, so as to boost the economy."

Data from the General Administration of Customs show that in the first 2 months of 2016, the total value of China's imports and exports was 3 trillion and 310 billion yuan, down 12.6% from the same period last year (the same below).

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 960 billion yuan, down 13.1%; imports 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan, down 11.8%; trade surplus 615 billion 900 million yuan, narrowed 15.9%.

In February, China's import and export value was 1 trillion and 430 billion yuan, down 15.7%.

Among them, exports were 821 billion 800 million yuan, down 20.6%; imports 612 billion 300 million yuan, down 8%; trade surplus 209 billion 500 million yuan, narrowed 43.3%.

"The export is bad. Yes, it is very conservative now that customers are placing orders overseas. Because the economic situation is not good, it needs to spend the winter," said a sales person in charge of a well-known household appliance company in Shunde, Guangdong, who did not want to be named.

He told reporters that the situation of business failures in Shunde has been different from the past one year, and there seems to be a slight improvement in recent business failures.

The callback of the RMB exchange rate gave them a sigh of relief.

It is worth noting that over the past few years, textile and other labor-intensive enterprises have been considering labor costs and gradually moving to Burma, Vietnam and other places around China.

However, as the main supply base of the world's household appliances, China's manufacturing capacity in other areas has not yet threatened China.

The foregoing Shunde foreign trade personage discovered that because of the labor cost consideration, there are also Mexico, Eastern Europe and other places of household electrical appliance production capacity, and is still moving to China.

"The estimate of the collapse is almost the same, and it should not be worse now," the source said.

For foreign trade enterprises, the core policy is exchange rate and export tax rebate.

The former affects export competitiveness and profit, while the latter affects cash flow.

Now it seems that these policies are gradually tilting towards exports and are expected to play a role gradually.

In this year's government work report, reporters found that in the context of the judgment of the international economic situation, "the external demand continued to be sluggish", the report used a larger space to support "stable exports".

On policy, the report stressed the need to ensure timely and full tax rebates for export enterprises.

In addition, supporting cross-border e-commerce export enterprises to set up "overseas warehouses" and expanding the service outsourcing demonstration cities (mainly offshore outsourcing) have all emphasized the policy tilt towards exports.

And another core policy, the exchange rate, has obviously been conducive to the direction of export enterprises.

Zhou Shijian counted out an account.

Before August 11th last year, 1 yuan was exchanged for 6.55 yuan, and by the end of January, it had fallen to about 1 yuan for 6.7 yuan.

Then, in August last year, the export enterprises, when the US dollar was exchanged for RMB at the end of January this year, would be able to convert 0.44 yuan into each dollar.

When the amount of foreign exchange settlement is large, profits will rise rapidly.

"These policies will slowly show their results in three months."

He said.