China'S Casual Wear Is Facing Signs Of Recession.

This year, the group is expected to lose 300 million -4.5 billion for the whole year, and the first annual loss after listing. Is China's casual wear industry facing signs of recession?

Recently, unconfirmed news came out in WeChat's circle of friends. The local leisure wear brand, Mts. Bang Wei (hereinafter referred to as "American bond") will invest 1 billion 800 million yuan in the headquarters building of Cambridge construction company in Nanhui District, Shanghai. It is expected to start after the Spring Festival in 2016.

There are also sources who say that the United States has its own office building in Cambridge and North Bund in Nanhui. It may be used for commercial purposes in real estate development projects.

However, further understanding of this situation shows that the US insiders are not able to take the message after seeing the news.

Today's news from the media has been revive. In 2015, the group of us group is expected to lose 300 million -4.5 billion yuan a year.

This is the seventh year after the listing of the United States and the first annual loss after the listing. The main reason for the company's losses is that in 2015, the channel operation adjustment of the franchising company still lags behind the direct channel, and there has been a certain decline in the wholesale income.

Zhou Chengjian, President of the US bond company, said at the beginning of this year that "pformation must be painful."

But the industry has generally noticed that the pformation of the US state is difficult.

In this connection, we will connect with you today.

Yang Dayun, President of investment company, asked Mr. Yang Dayun to analyze this.

Reporter: Hello, Mr. Yang Dayun. I'm very glad to talk with you again.

In your opinion, what are the problems faced by the United States?

Yang Da Jun: the actual situation of the United States has actually shown that the pformation of enterprises has entered a predicament, especially in the case of the collapse of the main business, doing other sideline business is still not conducive to changing the overall situation.

In fact, the United States should take a good look at the performance of other casual wear brands, for example, the pformation of Semir, which is also a Chinese casual wear brand, has achieved initial success. YISHION has achieved remarkable results after the pformation.

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I say the pformation of the US state is very difficult. There are three main reasons:

First, as a listed company, the United States must take into account the issue of business income and investor confidence, and it is precisely because of this, the United States bear tremendous pressure on performance, things must be forward-looking and scruples.

Two, ZARA, HM, GAP and other international fast fashion giants accelerate the entry into the Chinese market. The impact of China's three major casual wear brands including the United States, YISHION and Semir is unresistable. It also means that the US group, YISHION and Semir are virtually no resistance.

This requires that the three Chinese casual wear brands, such as Mts. Bang Wei, have to think about how to compete with the above fast fashion giants and find their own competitive models. But after my observation, they are still not only in hesitation, but also haven't found a new starting point.

Speaking of YISHION, as non-listed company, his

Very thorough, we also see that from the past casual dress brand for young people, "next door girl", soon adjusted to fashion, rebellious street fashion, in my view, this is the right thing to do.

At least one thing can prove that in the future, if young casual wear brands do not want to have a positive confrontation with the international fast fashion brands, pformation will be another style, and there is still some chance to find a new way of life in the market. Of course, it is not possible to exclude the possibility that there is only 50% chance of success.

For Semir, Semir focused on channel construction, and its main brand Balabala (balbala) also had a good performance. Semir's clothing has resumed growth by increasing the proportion of children's clothing business.

In the first half of 2015, its net profit reached 423 million yuan, an increase of 22.9% over the same period last year.

It can be said that the growth of children's clothing has a good role in promoting the overall growth of Semir.

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Although the United States has its pformation basis and waiting time, the biggest problem in the United States is the decline of its performance in the market. For example, after the launch of the high-end brand MeCity, due to unclear positioning and blindly pursuing big store mode, MC failed to achieve the expected effect and was in a state of loss. Later, the concept of building a O2O experience shop in the whole country and creating a concept of "one shop, one culture, one city, one story" was introduced. The shopping experience was still difficult to attract consumers, and once again faced with a deficit situation. In April this year, the United States focused on mobile Internet, and the introduction of the APP, which is known as "fan", is still acceptable, but it is difficult to make quick and effective profits in the short term, nor can it bring obvious benefits and benefits to the company's financial statements. Back to America,

Overall, Smith Barney is the most difficult of the three companies.

Speaking of which, I can not fail to mention the decline of the sporting goods industry caused by the decline of Lining and kappa.

Reporter: do you mean that the United States may become the trigger for the recession of China's casual wear industry?

Yang Da Jun: Yes, the decline of the sporting goods industry was due to the downturn in the second half of 2011. When the macroeconomic trend was relatively low, the purchasing power of consumers declined. From Lining to kappa until the overall decline of domestic sports brand performance, there was a big loss and collective "winter". After a period of downturn, with the adjustment of the market, the brand itself changed its direction, until now the recovery has improved.

Combined with the overall apparel industry including casual wear, I believe that the joint negative effects brought by the United States can not be eliminated until at least 2017. During this period, many domestic casual wear enterprises will encounter the same problems as the United States, and can not solve them or even get bogged down in the "mire".

In my opinion, the United States is probably a powerful "fuse", when we do not know when it will "detonate" a number of problems with the United States and the United States, but not yet known for the industry and burst out of casual wear enterprises.

Of course, we should also take an objective view of the reality facing the US, which is not unique to his family. His case is more like a microcosm of the development of China's casual wear industry in a "bottleneck" period.

However, the butterfly effect produced by the United States is accelerating to spread to China's casual wear industry.

The signs of recession facing the industry will become more apparent.