Chen Shi: The Bull Market Of Value And Growth Is Still A Structural Bull Market.
This week, the stock market was blocked down after 3360 points on the market, and the weekly line was negative. It shows that the wave band rising for three consecutive weeks may turn.
For the general market since this year, we have always believed that the market has shifted to medium-term adjustment.
At present, the overall market adjustment trend remains unchanged, but the market opportunities are also very rich.
The adjustment of blue chip stocks and the rise of small cap stocks constitute the differentiation pattern of the current market, while the big bull market background remains unchanged.
As for the Shanghai Composite Index, the market saw 3400 points for the first time in early January this year, though several times, it was blocked down and formed an obvious box top.
And look down, 3050--3100 point area, also has strong support.
Thus, a more obvious box was built between 3050--3400 points and lasted for two months.
This adjustment is based on the 70% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index for half a year.
Therefore, it can be considered that this is the first medium-term adjustment since the bull market started in July 2014 and is still in operation.
The trend of Shanghai stock index is mainly due to the mainstream blue chips headed by financial stocks and the second line blue chips represented by one belt and one road.
When brokerages, banks, petrochemical and other sectors have weakened, the market has moved to shock adjustment.
Judging from the trend of bank shares this week, many bank stocks still hit a new low in the past two months after adjusting for two months, indicating that bank stocks have been in a typical two wave adjustment.
Bank shares account for nearly half of the total weight of the market, which has a greater impact on the market trend.
Look at the performance of blue chips, such as brokerages, petrifaction, and other areas. In fact, they are mostly in the adjustment period in the past two months, which is the fundamental reason why the stock market has been pferred to the medium-term adjustment.
Behind the adjustment of blue chip stocks, one is the technical callback after a big increase, for example, brokerage stocks rose 2-3 times in 2-3 months, followed by 2-3 months of adjustment is completely normal; two, the continued downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, while blue chips are mostly traditional industries, and the growth prospects are not good, which has a significant drag on share prices.
So how big is the blue chip adjustment space, though this week?
Bank shares
A new low, the trend is not good, but the stock price once again fell to the undervalued level, the Bank of China's market share has nearly doubled, indicating that the downward trend of banking stocks is actually limited.
Brokerage stocks due to a larger increase in the previous period, 30% of the drop space should be said that the adjustment is not very sufficient, if there is bad, it does not rule out the possibility of further downstairs.
However, in the context of bull market, many funds may be waiting for the decline of brokerage stocks.
Another important sector is the second line blue chip represented by the one belt road. The adjustment level in the last two months is basically in place. Taking into account that the whole area is a national strategy, the future is bound to be a trend.
Aftermarket
It may be adjusted in the way of time for space.
Registration system is one of the most important factors affecting the general trend this year.
Judging from the latest management position, although the total number of new shares has increased this year, it will continue to maintain a balanced issuance, and the registration system will not be implemented until the end of the year. At least, the impact on the stock market will not be too great in the first half of the year.
If the impact of the registration system is weakened, it means that the medium term adjustment of the market will be limited.
It is worth mentioning that when the blue chips are adjusted, they represent growth.
Gem
It has hit a new high.
In fact, value and growth are two important supports of the bull market. The logic behind it is still the reform and pformation.
Reform returns the traditional industry value, and pformation promotes the rapid growth of new industries.
These two themes are driven by funds with different risk preferences, showing the characteristics of this shift.
In the past two months, it has been the growth stocks.
Looking ahead, in the context of the blue chip adjustment and growth stocks that have been rising for two months, it is expected that style rotation will gradually come and blue chips will return to the throne once the blue chips are fully adjusted.
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