Big Mo Huaxin: 2015 Theme Plates Continue To Be Active

2014

From 2109 at the beginning of the year to 3165 at the end of the year, the annual increase was 50%.

Da Mo Huaxin Fund said that in the new year, the theme plate will continue to be active, and the future market will gradually switch from increasing the capital admission to paying attention to the improvement of the economic fundamentals, while the emerging plate and theme plate will provide relatively more investment opportunities.

The current market is driven by liquidity.

Starting from the middle of 2014, but with the rising stock index, the core economic indicators such as industrial added value and CPI show that the economic boom is constantly declining, reflecting that the performance improvement of listed companies is not obvious, but it is not obvious.

PE was constantly pulled up.

Judging from the current situation, this liquidity driven market has no signs of ending.

The property market, which accounts for the vast majority of Chinese assets, is still in the doldrums. Nominal interest rates have declined, but under the background of deflation risk, the downward trend of real interest rates is not significant.

Funds can not find suitable investment direction in the real estate market and the real economy. It is estimated that future funds will continue to flow into the stock market with profitable effects and continue to push the stock market up.

At the same time, the fund driven market is expected to switch to fundamentals.

In the short term, the economy is still relatively sluggish, but the fundamentals of the economy are indeed changing.

At the same time, the government has taken measures such as "one belt and one way" to solve the excess capacity of traditional industries, enrich the sources of investment through the PPP mode, and guide social resources to new industries.

Big Mo Huaxin is relatively optimistic about investment opportunities in emerging industries.

In the second half of 2014, A shares were mainly blue chips such as finance and construction, and entered the market in 2015. The market switched to emerging markets such as computers and media. The valuation of blue chips and emerging sectors had been increased to varying degrees. However, from a sustainable perspective, the growth of Xinxing plate is huge.

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Shanghai and Hong Kong have been opened for hundreds of days. "Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong" has attracted more and more attention as the next step of possible opening up after the Shanghai and Hong Kong links.

CICC released research report today that, with the experience and technical preparation of Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong through the launch will be completed, and is expected to be launched in the second half of this year.

CICC pointed out that unlike the Shanghai market, the Shenzhen market has not only the main board, but also small and medium sized boards and gem.

The number of listed companies is 1629 (main board, medium and small board, gem 468, 740, 421), and the total market capitalization of A shares is 14 trillion and 800 billion (VS).

The Shanghai market is 29.3 trillion yuan.

Compared with the Shanghai market, the number of Listed Companies in Shenzhen market is more; the average market value is small; private and growing enterprises account for a relatively high proportion; growth industries such as technology, medicine, consumption and other industries account for a relatively high proportion; in recent years, the average profit growth is faster; pactions are also more active, turnover rate is significantly higher than that of Shanghai market; and from the performance of stock prices, it is obviously better than Shanghai market in recent years, but the average valuation is also significantly higher than the Shanghai market.

CICC expects Shenzhen Hong Kong through mechanism to be comparable to Shanghai and Hong Kong through mechanism, but may be slightly more flexible.

具体来说：(1)北向交易总额度也有望是3000 亿，或者视深港通推出之时沪港通额度使用情况与沪港通现有总额度一起有所扩大;(2)北向交易涵盖的股票：预计有两种可能性，一种可能性是类似沪港通的机制，覆盖深市相对大盘的股票并以相应指数的成份股和A/H 两地上市的股票为主(可能共涵盖308 支股票，市值占比约49%);第二种可能性是涵盖数量更多的股票，如以深圳1000 指数成份股为主(市值占比约82%，与沪港通覆盖的股票占上海市场的总市值比例相当);(3)南向交易覆盖的股票：尽管在深港通推出的同时，沪港通与深港通南向交易覆盖股票比当前覆盖范围可能有所扩大，但估计出于保护投资者的目的，其范围也很难大幅扩充至包括香港上市的市值较小的股票;(4)参与者门槛：预计北向交易的参与者没有限制，但南向交易的参与门槛可能有望与沪港通机制一起有所下调

。

According to CICC, similar to Shanghai and Hong Kong, the potential beneficiary shares of Shenzhen and Hong Kong include: (1) directly benefiting from the expansion of brokers and exchanges; (2) the relatively unique stocks of Shenzhen and Hongkong market relative to the other market; (3) QFII favors or "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" active stocks similar deep market and Hongkong market stocks; 4) stocks with relatively large A/H spreads and so on.

The above categories are not mutually exclusive and may overlap.