PTA: Strong Pattern Will Continue

Since bottoming out in November 5th, PTA futures have risen nearly 400 points. During the same period, although crude oil remained weak, PTA futures did not rise or fall.

The underlying logic behind this is that the demand for downstream polyester links is stronger than expected, resulting in strong supply and demand as well as support for the supply of raw materials PX.

Because of the low start-up load of polyester and weaving links in the off-season environment from 7 to September this year, the overall finished product inventory control is reasonable.

In October, the terminal textile orders were released in succession, plus the Spring Festival postponed this year, the terminal demand exceeded expectations, and the load of polyester and downstream looms increased all the way. As of November 12th, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was kept at 80%.

Polyester link boot rate maintained at a high level of 79.3%.

Rough statistics show that the average monthly output of polyester in 10 to November is 2 million 910 thousand tons, compared with the increase of 2 million 600 thousand tons in the three quarter, which has increased by more than 11%. In November, polyester production increased by nearly 18% compared with that in the off-season August.

Considering that there is still a production profit of 200 yuan / ton in the polyester link and a low level of stock remaining between 10 and 12 days, the strong pattern of polyester terminal demand is expected to continue.

After the collapse of the PTA three giants, the market share was re occupied by the PTA alliance. The PTA factory operating rate jumped from the low level of 60% in October to the 75% level near the end of October, which led to the accumulation of nearly 270 thousand tons of social stocks in October.

However, Hengli Petrochemical set up a 2 million 200 thousand ton plant since the beginning of November, after parking inspection, plus a set of equipment to reduce load operation, the PTA plant operating rate dropped to 70%, and the PTA supply had a significant shrinkage compared with the end of October.

And at the end of the month, 2 million 200 thousand tons of Yanda equipment can be overhauled, and PTA's social supplies are difficult to expand further.