Gu Mingde: US Withdrawal From QE Has No Impact On Shanghai And Shenzhen Stock Markets

There has always been a specious view. When the United States withdrew from QE (quantitative easing) monetary policy, financial market turbulence in the United States and around the world, emerging capital flows back to the United States, and the stock market plummeted. This view was proved wrong a few years ago and is not realistic. The logical starting point of this view is that the United States implements QE, issuing a maximum of 85 billion dollars a month, with a minimum of US $15 billion per month. When these US dollars stimulate the recovery of the US economy, most of them will flow into emerging markets, triggering the depreciation of the US dollar and world inflation.

As a result, after the implementation of QE, the US economy recovered, and the US dollar exchange rate index did not rise or fall, and world inflation did not appear. So far, no matter what data or from which point of view, the QE policy implemented by the Federal Reserve six years ago is a very successful case in financial history and economic history. As a result, the United States did not profit others, nor did it "conspire", but led the global economy out of the financial crisis.

Today, the United States officially announced its withdrawal from the QE policy. Another comment is that the US dollar index will go up and the stock market of emerging countries will fall sharply. The judgment flaw is that the Fed's monetary policy means there are interest rate measures and various means of open market operation besides QE measures. In particular, QE policy Exit is a gradual process. The flow of funds back to the US is not in today, but has been gradually reflux in a few years ago. This is an important factor for the US stock market to go for several years. Today, the US stock market has reached a record high of 17000 points.

The money that the world can return to the US has long been repatriated to the bottom of the US, and it will not be returned until today. In order to maintain the stability of the US economic recovery, the Fed has not raised the benchmark interest rate so far. Even if the Fed raises the benchmark interest rate, its interest rate is much lower than that of the emerging countries such as China. The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in a row. So, in the US, the stock market has gone up high, the US dollar. exchange rate Today's index is high. The emerging market countries in the world are returning to the us again. Is this not a typical catch up? Why not go back to China and other countries like the stock market and the economy at the bottom?

Today, the United States withdraws from lax. monetary policy This is what earth people knew earlier. International funds are much more aware of domestic capital than before. Why do we think of transferring funds to the us today? Our logical reasoning is that this year is the initial stage of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market changing from bear to cattle.

After the national day, the market index has undergone moderate adjustments. This adjustment is necessary. It is a squatting action before the innovation is high. Now, the phasing target of the adjustment has been completed, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has entered a stable and upward trend. Whether it's a big blue chip or a small cap theme, whether the traditional SOE reform or emerging industries, different types of investors choose their suitable varieties according to the size of the funds. One or two and three continue to move forward to overcome the special greedy and timid problems of Chinese investors, and embrace the late bull market of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.