Xu Chenghong: Heavy Data Coming From The Market

< p > in the published data, the most worthy of market attention is the performance of GDP and CPI in the euro area, because this may directly judge whether Delaki's action in June is the bottom, and the US CPI CPI market is expected to be better in April, and the annual CPI rate is not even more likely to hit 2%.

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At the same time, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, can not be overlooked. Yellen will deliver a speech at the national small business week at 7 o'clock on Friday morning in Beijing. Last week, Yellen's remarks on the Capitol Hill were twice obscured by the president of the European Central Bank Delaki. This week, although our sensitive remarks on P are no longer expected, the relevant topics may still attract market attention.

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< p > strong > euro GDP or guideline money prospect < /strong > /p >

P will release the GDP data of the euro area, which is of great concern today. Under the current easing expectations of the European Central Bank, if the data are not performing well, the ECB will have greater determination to take the easing measures.

Reports that the ECB will essentially cut interest rates and lower the euro next month also put pressure on the euro.

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< p > eurostatistical bureau is scheduled to announce eurozone first quarter GDP data at 17:00 Beijing time today.

Germany and France will also release their GDP data, which is now widely expected to grow at the fastest rate in the first quarter of three.

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The P survey shows that the euro area GDP will grow by 0.4% in the first quarter, an increase of two times in the first quarter and the highest level since the beginning of 2011. The euro area economy has been out of the longest recession in the second quarter of last year.

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< p > but the market believes that this may not prevent the ECB President Delaki from loosening monetary policy. Super Mario seems to be launching a series of policies such as interest rate cuts, negative deposit rates and quantitative easing.

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"P > the European Central Bank has been holding up again in last week's interest rate resolution." Delaki, President of the European Central Bank, said at a news conference after the meeting, "the central bank's management committee is not satisfied with the long-term low inflation prospect, and may take measures at the June meeting to push up the inflation rate.

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Delaki P is now making every effort to prevent sustained low price growth, leaving the recovery of the euro zone out of orbit before the growth trend is really established.

His speech last week about the willingness of central bank officials to take action in June shows that the new policy to deal with the current situation is expected to come out soon.

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< p > the European Central Bank is preparing to put forward a set of policy options at the June meeting, including the reduction of all interest rates of the central bank and the targeted measures designed to stimulate loans to SMEs.

The Bundesbank is willing to support a series of stimulus measures by the European Central Bank next month, including negative interest rates on bank deposits and the purchase of packaged bank loans when necessary, so as to avoid inflation at a low level.

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< p > the market believes that the rate cut in June is almost certain. This will be a precedent for the implementation of negative deposit interest rates among major central banks and will affect the euro exchange rate.

The European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 10-20 basis points, which may reduce all the three index interest rates, and the ECB's main refinancing rate is currently 0.25%.

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< p > from the expectation of the market, although it is more optimistic about the GDP data in the euro area today, it is foreseeable that unless the data is substantially better than expected, it may still not be a hindrance to the ECB's easing action in June.

So for the euro, even if the data meet expectations or slightly exceed expectations, it will be a boost for the first time, but whether it can continue to rise after that may still be questioned.

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< p > < strong > US < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > CPI < /a > or helping us dollar continue to rise > /strong > /p >

< p > the US labor department will announce the CPI data of the 4 monthly CPI after today's 20:30.

This data has been widely noticed in the market recently, as many economists predict that the annual rate of consumer prices in the United States will reach 2% in April.

As the US CPI has been below 2% for a long time, if the annual CPI rate jumped in April, it might surprise the market.

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< p > the Federal Reserve has set an inflation target of 2%.

However, the main reference target of the Fed's goal is not CPI, but the core PCE price index.

So strictly speaking, even if the CPI rate reached 2% today, it does not mean that the Fed's inflation target has been reached.

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One of the most distressing problems facing Federal Reserve officials is that inflation continues to be less than 2%, even if the Fed has launched a massive stimulus, but price pressures are still mild and inflation is expected to be disillusioned again and again.

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< p > data released earlier showed that the US producer price index rose by 0.6% in April, the largest increase since September 2012, and the increase in March is equivalent to that in April.

Driven by rising food prices, the US producer price index recorded the largest increase in 1 and a half years in 4, suggesting that previous inflation pressures are continuing to rise.

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< p > inflation in the United States is changing. Housing related a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > price < /a > is rising. Medical costs are also increasing. This may bring about a dynamic price change. Policymakers and financial market participants will face a significant increase in core inflation later this year. The real change may not yet come, because this does not seem to be reflected in the current market.

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< p > from the market reaction, if the United States CPI can get a good rise tonight, it is expected to further stimulate the market's anticipation of the Fed's early interest rate increase, which is good for the US dollar.

Of course, in the same period of time, the number of jobless claims released in the early May 10th of the United States in the same period, and the April US industrial output month rate announced at 21:15 in Beijing later, are also crucial for investors to ignore.

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< p > > in addition, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp >" Federal Reserve "/a" President Yellen will make a speech at 7 o'clock on Friday morning in Beijing.

Speaking on two Capitol Hill last week, Yellen did not show clear signals of too much monetary policy, and investors could no longer expect to reveal too much information in such minor speeches as tomorrow's national small business week.

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Since Yellen first held a press conference in March, the Taijiquan function in public speaking has obviously improved greatly. At that conference, Yellen quantified the hidden statements prepared by his subordinates, which is a major mistake. P

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< p > but in last week's congressional testimony, Yellen completely read the book and refused to make any personal comments on the interest rate policy or the overall economy.

At present, Yellen is obviously on the route of insurance.

However, she still tried to raise some concerns about the current economic recovery. The market generally agreed that Yellen's speech was also difficult.

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