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Analysis Of New York'S Foreign Exchange Market: Favorable Data And Stock Market Decline

2014/4/12 19:32:00 20

New York Foreign Exchange And Stock Market Fall

although the us a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economic data < /a > higher than expected, it still can not prevent the US stock market from falling. In the face of the US stock's fall again, the exchange market reaction is rather dull, the non US currencies have mixed ups and downs, and the US dollar / yen exchange rate has risen slightly.

for the foreign exchange market, the trend is still relatively calm today, and most non US currencies remain in a state of concussion.

after four straight days of decline, the dollar index once again fell to the mid-term support line. Recently, with the sharp rise in the non US dollar, the short term atmosphere of the US dollar has become increasingly strong. However, just four days ago, the mainstream view of the market was coming from the dollar bull market. The euro area was easing soon. Less than a week later, the easing remarks of the senior officials of the European Central Bank almost failed to cause the euro to fall.

in fact, there is probably not much to be seen about the foreign exchange market in the period. Although the G20 summit is held, this type of large conference with no specific purpose is generally difficult to have any meaningful views and has little impact on the market.

The yen is more interesting. Although the US shares have fallen again, the US dollar / yen did not continue the recent decline.

as the weekend is coming, the exchange market is relatively dull. So we can probably talk about < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > American stock < /a > by this opportunity.

After the recent fall, the market's view of the US shares can be very short, especially today, there are many points of view that the big bear market is coming and there are many reasons to see it, but in fact, it is only two, the first is that the American stock is too expensive; and the two is the Federal Reserve is beginning to tighten.

for the first reason, it is meaningless to enumerate the data. The only thing to say is that it is meaningless to be empty because of the high price.

This is almost the axiom of market trend.

There is no shortage of people who think that the price is too high. But when prices are really too high, they often only sing praises. Remember when Apple's stock rose to 700? At that time, there were few people who had high share price of apple. Most people thought Apple's market value could reach $1 trillion.

Similar examples are numerous.

for second reasons, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the Fed "/a" does start to gradually reduce the intensity of easing, but on the basis of this reason, the empty bearer seems to have ignored a historical fact. Whether it is in the US stock market, or in other markets, or even A shares, the bull market tends to start with tightening, until the tightening policy reaches a very high level before it suddenly stops.

of course, it does not mean that the US stock will not fall back. Past experience also shows that with the change of the Fed's attitude, the short and medium term correction of the US stocks is very normal. It is far from 1994-1995 years. More recently, for example, in 2004, a more recent example, such as the end of the US Federal Reserve's loose policy over the past 5 years, has no exception in the US stock market.

, but it is only an amendment. The bear market is too extreme.

Facts have proved that in the long run, this is a very good opportunity to do more.

when is the time when stocks really come to an end? There may never be a quantitative conclusion.

Although the extremes of events will never change, the truth will never change, but in essence, there is no rule that can tell when the moon is full.

but from now on, the US economy is still growing moderately, and the Federal Reserve is just beginning to reduce its easing. It seems that there is still a long way to go when it comes to extremes.

So the idea of a bear market is coming.