New Non-Performing Loans Are Concentrated In The Yangtze River Delta.

The new non-performing loans of banks are mainly concentrated in the manufacturing and wholesale industries in the Yangtze River Delta region, while the current manufacturing profits in Zhejiang are approaching the line of life and death.

According to the statistics released by the CBRC, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 526 billion 500 million yuan at the end of the first quarter of this year, and rebounded for 6 consecutive quarters, with a negative rate of 0.96%. In the twinkling of an eye, banks will once again welcome the six months' performance examination, and whether the Yangtze River Delta's economy, which is famous for its manufacturing industry, can be revival, which is related to the bad assets pressure of the listed banks. To this end, we went to the Zhejiang area and visited some manufacturing companies for many days. We found that the local small and medium manufacturing industries had approached the zero profit line of life and death. Labor costs and expensive rents are eating away at manufacturing profits. Some companies have chosen to move to cheaper inland areas.

"Joint-stock banks overtook loans in the first quarter and pay attention to loans twice, and the quality of semi annual report assets remained under pressure." A joint-stock bank official said that the new non-performing assets are still dominated by the Yangtze River Delta region, especially the three export enterprises in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai, which are very difficult to survive under the economic downturn.

　　 New non-performing loans concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta

Bankers worry that the economic recovery in the Yangtze River Delta is not as good as expected, which will pressure banks' bad assets.

In the first quarter of this year, the new non-performing loans of the listed banks were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region. The bad rates in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai increased by 76, 23 and 13 BP respectively. The three regional export enterprises were more intensive, and private lending was active.

According to a research report of CITIC Securities, the distribution of non-performing loans in the first quarter of the listed banks has increased by 25 billion 200 million yuan and 7 billion 200 million yuan respectively in the manufacturing and trade circulation enterprises.

"In the two quarter, I am afraid it is not very satisfactory. The manufacturing industry in Zhejiang is still very difficult, and the rumor of the" weak recovery "is not correct. A joint-stock commercial bank in Zhejiang said.

In his view, rising labor costs and rising living costs have already engulfed almost all profits in small and medium manufacturing industries. "The two quarter will slow down, but it will keep rising."

Analysts pointed out that the listing joint-stock commercial banks overdue, concerned about the increase in loans need to be vigilant.

"At the end of the first quarter, the ratio of large banks concerned about loans was 2.82%, a decrease of 20 BP, while joint-stock banks increased by 1.25% and BP 10 respectively." According to CITIC Securities Research Report Analysis, "at the end of 2012, the overdue loan rate of large banks was 1.23%, relatively stable, and the joint-stock banks were 1.24%, continuing upward."

According to the above research report, in the first quarter, the overdue loans of some banks increased by 10%~20%, while the growth rate of bad loans was 7%. The growth of overdue loans, especially loans overdue for more than 90 days, indicates that there will still be some pressure on the quality of banking assets in the two quarter.

The agency forecasts that the bad rate of the two quarter of the listed banks is about 1%, and the pressure of the joint-stock banks is slightly larger. In the two quarter, the growth of the bad loans in the single quarter is about 40 billion, and the bad rate may rebound from 0.96% to 0.98%. Analysts predict that non-performing loans will continue to rise steadily throughout 2013.

　 Small and medium enterprises have few profits.

"The tax rate of small and medium manufacturing industries in Zhejiang is very low." Operating in Jiaxing Leatherwear Mr. Wang told reporters in the daily economic news that "the tax rate of many traditional small and micro manufacturing enterprises is only around 1.5%, which means that an enterprise has a sales income of 10 million yuan, and the value-added tax paid to the state is only 150 thousand yuan. The lower the tax burden, the lower the added value of the manufacturing process.

He gave the reporter an account: the annual sales revenue of the company is 10 million yuan, and the tax rate is 1.5%. In turn, it is concluded that the added value of the enterprise's product from raw material purchase to finished product sale is increased by about 900 thousand yuan, and 900 thousand yuan is deducted after deducting the cost factor that can not provide VAT deduction.

For the general manufacturing industry, the remuneration of workers, depreciation of fixed assets and interest on bank loans are all items that cannot be provided by VAT deduction. "The wages of workers in traditional manufacturing industries, such as the average annual salary of around 40 thousand, employ 15 workers, and the annual labor cost will be reduced by about 600 thousand yuan. Some manufacturing equipment needs to calculate depreciation of fixed assets. " Mr. Wang said, "we also need to deduct the rent of the site. For small manufacturing enterprises, the rent is at least one million a year, and the interest on bank loans is more than ten thousand. 900 thousand yuan is deducted from wages, depreciation, rent and interest, and there is basically no profit at all."

In addition to the meager profits, another embarrassment for small and medium enterprises is that they do not have the right to speak, which often leads SMEs to face the pressure of capital chain.

"For example, the iron and steel industry is in a rather difficult position, and the profit of steel mills is not as good as that of raising pigs before. But the steel plant is at the top of the industrial chain. In the whole steel industry chain, the negotiation ability of the steel plant is very strong." A person familiar with the steel industry told the "daily economic news" reporter, "steel mills in the sales process almost no accounts receivable. Every time it sells a ton of steel, it has cash to settle accounts, and even some downstream businesses have to pay the bills in advance so that they can pick up the goods and collect the money before delivery. But for small and medium-sized enterprises in the downstream of the industrial chain, the survival situation is much more difficult. Imported raw materials must be bought in cash, not on credit.

"Small and medium-sized steel enterprises also have difficulties in selling products, and the next family should buckle up their money for two or three months. The pressure on the operation of enterprises is much more difficult than that in the upstream of the industrial chain. Small and medium-sized enterprises are in a very difficult position. These people told reporters.

　 Enterprises run away with high costs

The reporter found that "higher wages" has been the high-frequency words for the owners to answer why profits fall.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in 2012, small businesses in Zhejiang collapsed due to cost pressures, while large and medium-sized labor-intensive enterprises, although the order situation was relatively stable, their profit margins were being gradually narrowed, and the export growth rate of labor-intensive products will continue to fall.

Looking back at the overall trade situation in 2012, Zhejiang's foreign trade grew by only 0.9% compared with the same period last year, which is lower than the national average growth rate of 6.2%.

"Wages are rising fast, and the average wages of the workers in my leather factory are 2500 yuan per month in 2007, and nearly 4000 yuan in 2012," the boss said. Mr. Wang, who runs leather business in Jiaxing, told reporters that "everyone in the circle is discussing that wages have risen by 15%~20% in 5 years. What should we do next?"

In addition, the rise in labor costs has prompted some foreign companies to move their factories out of China. Take Zhejiang Province clothing Spin For example, in the manufacturing sector, the industry grew by 15% in 2012. Some of the capacity was transferred to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Kampuchea this year. In order to reduce the cost of logistics, some of its capacity was transferred to Central American countries. Medical equipment and industrial electrical machinery also had 30% of its capacity to Mexico this year.

The issue of RMB appreciation, which has always been heated, seems to have caused too much trouble to business owners. Export companies have locked profits through foreign exchange and forward financial instruments. In addition, business owners reflected that the cost of financing for enterprises also declined slightly, and the interest rate reached 2010 in annualized loans in 10%~11%, which dropped to 7%~8% last year.

All kinds of pressures have forced entrepreneurs to find their own way out. "The coastal areas are hard to bear either manpower or rent, and the central provinces are more competitive." Have a family in Jiaxing Clothes & Accessories "We are planning to move to Jiangxi, where the cost of living is lower," Zhang said.

"However, some of the upstream and downstream industries in Jiangxi are not complete, and transport costs will also rise. Moving to Jiangxi is just a matter of frustration." Mr. Zhang has a slight regret.

In order to keep profits, many owners have similar ideas with Mr. Zhang. According to CITIC Securities research, at present, there are mainly four ways to transform Zhejiang's export enterprises: expand diversified overseas markets; manufacture links to inland provinces; use machines to replace labor and upgrade technology levels; integrate upstream and downstream industrial chains.

"System" shoes The industry tends to diversify in the market, migrate to the mainland and integrate the development of the industrial chain; while the sanitary ware industry tends to diversify and integrate the industrial chain; the garment industry insists on diversifying the market and integrating the industrial chain; the LCD panel wants to migrate and integrate the industrial chain to the mainland. The above research lists some ways of reform in some industries.

　　 Support for manufacturing bank lending has not slowed down

Manufacturing profits are thin but firmly rooted in local economies. Some bankers say that banks are strong in manufacturing, and promise not to lend is a mature and stable manufacturing industry.

"In a short period of time, it is impossible for the market to eliminate these manufacturing enterprises. The development of manufacturing industry in Zhejiang is relatively mature, and the profit rate may not be very high, but it is stable." Zhejiang branch of a joint-stock commercial bank responsible person said, "mature industry market supply and demand stability, profit margins in the average profit level, is conducive to the bank's risk control."

He pointed out that taking Jiaxing area as an example, in the economic crisis, the deterioration of non-performing assets of Jiaxing's banks was mainly concentrated in a few industries, and the risks faced by the two industries of steel trade and photovoltaic were outstanding. "Early steel trade has been exposed, and the photovoltaic industry may also encounter risk exposure problems in the future. But to sum up the above two industries, I think there are still some differences compared with these traditional manufacturing industries. Because the growth of these two industries is too fast, the entry of capital is speculative.

Speaking of photovoltaic industry, the bank believes that the growth of new industries is good, but it is undulating and unstable. "Not only is photovoltaic, most industries will start to show high profit margins and large fluctuations, and then gradually mature to stabilize. For banks, to abandon the mentality of profiteering, high returns often mean high risk. Our hope is still able to take the road of relative balance between risk and revenue.

According to the relevant person of the Jiaxing banking regulatory bureau, as of the end of April, the balance of financial institutions in Jiaxing was 480 billion yuan, and the balance of loans was about 380000000000 yuan, an increase of 14% over the same period last year. There was no sign of slowing down; the balance of non-performing loans was 5 billion yuan, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.33%; the balance of loans for small and micro enterprises was about 150000000000 yuan, and the growth rate was less than 10%.

In addition, Jiaxing District of Zhejiang also launched the "no repayment of loan renewal" business, which is equivalent to maturity without repayment of principal, so long as it can repay interest, it can enjoy continued loans.