The Dilemma Of Cotton Industry Chain Imbalance Is Still Grim.

Confusion

There is such a balance: one side stands China.

And cotton processing enterprises, while the other side is China's textile enterprises.

One side is "fire", which is full of money, red and red, one side is "ice", and the other is walking on the edge of loss.

A "invisible hand" carefully added weights to the two pallets to achieve balance.

However, before finding the "balance point", the balance inevitably swings and tilts, resulting in the "passive" game of different stakeholders. The phenomenon of "not east wind prevails over the west wind, the west wind overwhelms the east wind" temporarily appears, which is far from the original intention of "win-win".

The above is the true portrayal of the cotton market today.

Bitter textile enterprises

Industry experts said that the downturn in international market demand will continue in the second half of the year, and the industrial development environment is still grim.

Late September.

Xinjiang.

In Akesu's cotton sale market, the van's cotton is escorted to this point. The air is filled with cotton incense, and snow-white new cotton is piling up in the mountains, softer and softer than the clouds in the sky.

At half past ten in the morning, a dark cotton farmer drove the four wheeled vehicle, carrying a full load of cotton, and prepared to sell his own harvest to cotton traders.

"Cotton harvest" this year.

The cotton grower smiled and told reporters.

The cotton vendor carefully examined and looked at the cotton and frowned, "no adulteration of" three silk "?" so called "three silk" is commonly known as the foreign fiber mixed with raw cotton in the industry.

The blending of "three wire" cotton is very difficult to handle and will seriously affect the quality of cotton yarn and cloth.

The cotton grower is obviously a "old guard" who consulted with cotton traders for a few minutes.

Cotton Traders no longer say that the instrument is inserted into cotton, and the instrument measures a humidity of 10%.

The national reserve requires 9% of the humidity, while cotton traders will generally relax as long as they do not exceed 12% and 13%.

After some bargaining, cotton farmers' seed cotton was sold to cotton traders at 8.5 yuan / kg, which is 0.4 yuan lower than last year.

But in 2012, the weather in Xinjiang was good, and cotton growers ushered in second high-yield years. According to the Akesu area, 400 kilograms of seed cotton per mu and the cost of 2300 yuan per mu were calculated, the cost per kilogram was only 5.75 yuan. Cotton farmers in Akesu area could earn 2.75 yuan for selling a kilogram of cotton, and the profit per mu could reach 1100 yuan. The average farmers in Xinjiang had 30-60 mu of land, and the annual income could reach 33 thousand -6.6 yuan.

"The income of cotton farmers in Xinjiang is quite good," the industry told reporters. "Cotton farmers outside the Xinjiang can not earn so much. Because of the relatively low grade of cotton outside the Xinjiang, the profits of cotton farmers should also be thinner."

As a result, cotton growers are "profitable" at present.

Look at the cotton traders and cotton traders to sell the cotton they sell to the ginning factory and profit from it.

It is reported that cotton traders in Xinjiang can earn 3 cents by acquiring a kilogram of cotton, that is, a ton can earn 300 yuan, and this income is also considerable.

Of course, there are also large cotton farmers selling cotton to cotton ginning plants and eliminating the link of exploitation by cotton traders, which is more common in Xinjiang.

Cotton mill is a cotton processing enterprise. According to many people in the industrial chain, the profit of processing enterprises is quite rich this year.

The cost price is generally around 19000 yuan -19500 yuan / ton, according to the current purchase and storage price of 20400 yuan / ton sold to the state, it can earn 1000 yuan / ton.

However, because of the high cost, the downstream textile enterprises have been crying all over the world, becoming the loneliest and lonesome part of the industrial chain at present.

Generally speaking, the seed cotton purchase price is 1 cents per high, and the cost of cotton will increase by about 200 yuan.

After 30 years of reform and opening up, especially in the past ten years, the entire textile industry has greatly improved in terms of management technology and equipment.

At present, China's textile industry is developing rapidly, with the highest productivity in the world. The cotton yarn has reached 29 million tons in 2011, and the adjustment and pformation of industrial structure is imminent.

With the harsh international trade environment, Chinese textile enterprises have encountered "cold currents" in recent years.

Wang Gong, general manager of Anhui Huamao Textile Group Co., Ltd. said that the cost of textile enterprises has been rising this year, including the rise in cotton prices and the increase in consumption of workers.

Domestic cotton prices and international low cotton prices can not compete, the domestic textile enterprises have been greatly impacted.

"In addition to cost pressures, the tax burden of textile enterprises is heavier at present. Huamao has to pay 6% of the tax burden. Under normal circumstances, the profit of textile enterprises is only about 3.5%-4%."

Wang Gong said.

In addition, the policy volatility is large, the mobility of personnel is large, the recruitment of enterprises is difficult; the foreign textile industry is also developing rapidly, bringing impact; the vicious circle of internal peer competition; the whole national macro economy continues to decline.

Under the combined action of many factors, Chinese textile enterprises are overwhelmed and bogged down in the mire.

Moreover, the textile industry will not get warmer in the short term because of the continued slump in demand.

Industry experts said that the downturn in international market demand in the second half of this year will continue.

Problems such as labor cost and financing difficulties are difficult to improve in the short term. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is still widening, and the industrial development environment is still grim.

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Excess cotton

At present, the world's cotton output has exceeded demand.

World cotton inventory is expected to reach a record high by July 31, 2013.

When he studied with reporters in Xinjiang, he watched the cotton bolting and growing in the field, and the growth was gratifying, and the new cotton market was piled up. A senior veteran of the futures industry laughed and said, "cotton growers in the world grow the most expensive cotton in the world." textile enterprises use the most expensive cotton in the world.

The main reason for all this is the global cotton surplus.

Yin Qing, manager of Cotton Trade Department of Louis Da Fu (Beijing) Trading Co., Ltd., said that the world's cotton output has exceeded demand.

2012/2013 is the second year with more production than consumption. By July 31, 2013, world cotton stocks will reach a record high.

The data showed that the global cotton planting area and production volume increased in 2011/2012.

According to the statistics of the US Department of agriculture, 2011/2012 has 26 million 710 thousand tons of world cotton production, 23 million 200 thousand tons of consumption, 9 million 480 thousand tons of imports, 14 million 520 thousand tons of final inventory, 3 million 510 thousand tons of output and 62.5% of inventory consumption.

World cotton supply exceeds demand in 2012/2013 will continue.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton production will reach 24 million 840 thousand tons in 2012/2013, consumption of 23 million 549 thousand tons, and cotton ending inventory of 16 million 258 thousand tons, an increase of 10.13% over the previous year, and the inventory consumption ratio of 69% will reach the highest level in history.

China's cotton consumption will drop sharply in the new year.

China's cotton production is expected to be 6 million 750 thousand tonnes in 2012/2013, down by 7.46% over the same period last year, and consumption of 8 million 491 thousand tons, down 4.88% from the same period last year, and 2 million 830 thousand tons of imports, down 44.07% from the same period last year, and 7 million 442 thousand tons at the end of the year, an increase of 16.74% over the same period last year.

Considering the three factors of domestic output, consumption and imports, China's cotton supply will exceed 1 million 89 thousand tons in 2012/2013, and China's cotton market will go to the stage of de stocking.

"The new year is still a year of serious oversupply and will continue to suppress cotton futures prices."

Zhang Wenmin, general manager of cotton industry division of Wanda Futures Co., Ltd.

So why is China's cotton consumption sharply reduced? Zhang Wenmin analyzed, first of all, textile enterprises in 2011/2012-2012/2013 reduced cotton consumption by 20-30% or 150-200 tons, and the utilization rate of SMEs was only 30-50%.

Secondly, the replacement amount of chemical fiber will reach 150-200 tons, and the replacement trend will continue to expand.

In addition, this year imported 5 million 130 thousand tons of cotton, 1 million 160 thousand tons of imported cotton yarn, and imported cotton cotton yarn less than domestic cotton price of 3000-5000 yuan; impact on domestic cotton consumption 150-200 million tons.

These factors will directly reduce China's annual cotton consumption by 300-400 tons.

In order to protect the interests of cotton growers, the government opened a new cotton market with no limit on the price of 20400 yuan / ton in 2012/2013. After the end of the forecast, the national cotton storage is expected to reach more than 6 million tons, accounting for 36.9% of the global stock. In the next few years, the market is difficult to digest the excessive cotton stocks, and the situation of oversupply in the global cotton market is hard to reverse.

Yin Qing said, "global cotton consumption has been back for 8 years due to sluggish demand and the shift to the use of chemical fiber. The end of world cotton inventory has reached a historical high and is expected to continue to increase at the end of 2012/2013.

In the future, if we want to restore the balance of supply and demand, we must reduce cotton planting area worldwide.

Unbalanced scales

Under the premise of the low consumption of the downstream, the increase in cost has made Chinese textile enterprises complain incessantly, and have appealed to the domestic cotton price to close to the cheap cotton abroad.

Despite the oversupply of global cotton market and the weakness of downstream consumption, the turnover and circulation of domestic cotton are still in full swing with the coming of new cotton.

The reporter saw that cotton growers and Cotton Traders bargaining in Xinjiang's cotton market.

According to local sources, "this year's acquisition scene is as lively as in previous years."

Since there is no improvement in downstream consumption, where does a large quantity of cotton flow to? In this regard, cotton farmers do not care. They sell cotton to cotton traders. The harvest is good one year, and they are satisfied.

Cotton dealers do not care, resale to cotton and hemp processing enterprises, earn a full pot, it is done.

Processing enterprises believe that as long as cotton can be made to maintain the profits of the enterprise.

So, who has been taken away from cotton? In fact, there is a consensus in the cotton circle, and most of this year's cotton flows into the national reservoir.

The reporter learned that from the beginning of September 2011 to the end of March 2012, the state has acquired 3 million 220 thousand tons of domestic reserve cotton and 1 million tons of imported reserve cotton, plus 300 thousand tons of old cotton in 2009, and a total of 4 million 520 thousand tons of cotton.

Domestic cotton market fluctuated narrowly in the range of 18500 yuan -22000 yuan, and seed cotton purchase price fluctuated between 8 yuan and -9.0 yuan.

In addition, by the end of 2011, 3 million tons of imported cotton had been issued.

Among them, 894 thousand tons 1% tariff import cotton quota and 1 million 100 thousand tons processing trade, sliding tax quota; in early May 2012, issued 500 thousand -100 million tons sliding tax quota; in August, issued 400 thousand tons processing trade quota.

After a "swallow up" of the State Reserve, the domestic cotton prices stabilized around the purchasing and storage prices, far higher than the foreign cotton prices.

Under the premise of the low consumption of the downstream, the cost increase has made Chinese textile enterprises complain incessantly, and have appealed for the domestic cotton price to close to the low priced cotton abroad.

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"In the period of storage and purchase, a higher Chinese reserve cotton price and a lower foreign cotton price were formed, and the difference between the two was 3000 yuan -5000 yuan! Textile enterprises tend to import foreign cotton and cotton yarns in India and Pakistan at low price."

Zhang Wenmin analyzed.

However, the "import road" also seems to be blocked.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic cotton prices continue to be suppressed by oversupply of cotton in the world. The end of the stock is up to 14 million 520 thousand tons, which is facing the pressure of recurrent cotton import quasi tax quotas and throwing cotton reserves.

Recently, market rumors no longer issue quotas this year. This is no doubt that "snow is adding frost". The market fears that it will become the last straw of textile enterprises.

Wei Gaocheng, President of the Xinjiang Cotton Association, said, "according to the domestic market situation, the policy of purchasing and storage should protect the interests of cotton farmers on the one hand, while protecting the interests of textile enterprises.

The purpose of national macro-control is particularly obvious, that is, to ensure the healthy development of the industrial chain.

For the market rumors that the country no longer issued import quotas this year, Wei Gaocheng believes that the state's export quotas are balanced from a macro perspective.

The market is constantly changing. The regulation means of the country is to ensure the healthy and orderly operation of the industry.

But for the "20400 yuan" purchase price, textile enterprises have expressed "great pressure".

A more textile enterprise official told reporters, "according to the idea of throwing 18000 yuan into storage and collecting 20400 yuan, some textile enterprises and cotton and hemp enterprises will be able to get together. The textile enterprises will buy cotton and then sell cotton and hemp enterprises.

This is not conducive to the healthy and stable operation of the market.

"The state should collect and store, and it should store and store in accordance with the market price.

The motive and intention of the country are all good, but the methods and strategies should be further closer to the market and closer to the enterprises so as to better ensure the healthy development of the industrial chain.

Insiders who do not want to be named suggest.

At this stage in China, it is very necessary for the state to take measures to regulate and control.

When the cotton market is good, throwing storage can meet the demand of cotton for textile enterprises.

In the case of poor market, purchasing and storing can protect the interests of cotton farmers.

However, when and when will it be sold and stored? How can we balance the interests of cotton farmers and textile enterprises?

A number of textile enterprises responsible for journalists contacted put forward the hope that the state should attach importance to the regulation of the cotton industry chain "both macro and micro", and further focus on supporting the real economy.

Specific suggestions include regulation and control of tax policy, appropriate reduction of tax burden of textile enterprises, support of import and export enterprises, encouraging enterprises to import their products, hope that the government can create a fair and reasonable competition environment, stable policies and social order, and policy fluctuation should not be too great; besides, local governments should also increase their support for local enterprises.

In China, only the quotas can be used to buy relatively cheap imported cotton, and those textile mills without quotas have to use high cost cotton production.

"Bitter oneself, saved the whole world."

An insider has so commented on the current situation of China's cotton market.

At present, China's textile enterprises are in a difficult position, and the efficiency of enterprises is declining.

In the 1-7 months of this year, the total profit of the textile industry decreased by 1% compared with the same period last year. The profit margin dropped by about 12% compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of the deficit companies increased by 101.8% over the same period last year.

"In the past few months in Shandong, Henan, Anhui, small and medium-sized textile enterprises limited production phenomenon is widespread, the phenomenon of shut-down and conversion.

An important reason for the collapse of textile enterprises is that domestic cotton prices are too high and import quotas are limited.

The head of a Henan textile enterprise told reporters.

In China, only the quotas can be used to buy relatively cheap imported cotton, and those textile mills without quotas have to use high cost cotton production.

China's cotton policy supports cotton prices all over the world. As long as China keeps purchasing, it will ease the stock pressure in the cotton market.

Therefore, people in the industry say with a smile that China's cotton policy has served as a "savior" to protect the world's cotton price.

Yin Qing said that this year China spent more than 10 billion dollars on purchasing and storing.

By comparison, the United States never spent more than 5 billion dollars on cotton projects, and generally it was within 2 billion dollars or less.

China imported more than 50% of the world's cotton trade last year.

China strictly controls the market through strict import cotton quota system, and the time and quantity of the quota are unknown.

China's State Reserve has announced that it will buy Cotton in domestic quantities at a price of 20400 yuan / ton in 2012/2013, and reserves will probably purchase large quantities of imported cotton at the same time.

None of these data is demonstrating: China dominates the world's cotton market.

The future cotton price trend is also closely related to China's cotton policy.

Cotton prices will fluctuate around the price of 20400 yuan.

China's purchasing and storage price is a benchmark and plays a stabilizing role in China and even in the world market.

Experts predict that China's cotton reserves will reach its peak saturation in 2012/2013. If they can not continue to purchase and store, they will be pferred to the annual storage of 2 million -300 million tons or more in the next year. They will be auctions and so on. The throwing time, price, quantity, location and way will become the main factors that affect the market price.

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News extension

Cotton related enterprises

Using futures to avoid risks

At the moment when the global macro environment is not improving, Chinese textile enterprises are struggling with both internal and external causes.

However, some excellent enterprises are good at making use of futures tools, so as to circumvent risks and help the normal operation of enterprises.

It is understood that in order to achieve a win-win situation for cotton farmers and enterprises, Hubei Yinfeng, a "point base" enterprise on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, adopts the mode of "order + spot + futures" for production and operation.

Cotton growers are in a weak position in the competition of the industrial chain, and information asymmetry often leads to planting mentality.

The enterprises' orders for cotton growers, reassuring them to grow cotton, solving their worries about market acquisitions, and solving the problem of making money all the year round, have made farmers' enthusiasm greatly improved.

According to Yan Feng, general manager of Hubei Yinfeng Industrial Refco Group Ltd, before the futures market is available, the benefits will be changed according to the cotton market.

After the listing of cotton futures, cotton companies in China actively tried hedging and explored for many years.

"This year, we have acquired 250 thousand tons of cotton wool in 61 factories in our country, and acquired so many cotton. If the market is not good next year, what should we do? The way we use is to link cotton growers, cooperatives, 61 processing plants (bases) and companies."

Yan Feng said.

The reporter understands that generally speaking, when the cotton grower sells cotton to whom the price is high, it can not guarantee that cotton will be supplied to cotton processing enterprises by quality and quantity each year.

So, Yin Feng set up 169 cooperatives around the base to organize the cotton farmers of thousands of households.

Cooperation between enterprises and cooperatives to provide pesticide seeds and fertilizers for cotton farmers.

When cotton is sown in two or three every year, the expected profits of cotton farmers are distributed to cooperatives so that cotton farmers can reach the lowest seed cotton for cooperatives.

If the market price continues to rise, it will give cotton farmers the two rebate and attract cotton farmers into the hands of cooperatives.

"As long as we signed orders with the cooperative, we knew the cost of seed cotton ahead of time.

By the time of the acquisition in September, it will be safe and courageous.

Because our hedging goes ahead of others, even if the market price is higher, up to 8.7 yuan, we dare to buy it.

When cotton prices fell from 21000 yuan this year, 2 and March, we did a lot of hedging, which is different from other companies' speculative "hedging."

Yan Feng introduced the way.