Adjustment Of National Export Policy: Zheng Cotton Cautiously Sees Rebound

We should be cautious in holding down.

In recent years, the US cotton has been too strong, especially in July, when the contract was squeezed out, the domestic cotton contracts also showed this near strong far and weak phenomenon.

However

Spot quotation began to improve, the overall probability of the commodity market warmer, so the probability of further rebound of cotton price is also larger.

Spot prices fell further today, with 328 cotton quotes 18325 yuan / ton, the first to stop, 2 cotton quotes 19428 yuan / ton, or 1 yuan / ton.

Today, Zheng cotton is down, showing a higher pressure on top, but it is not yet clear that the rally has ended.

Today, the 1301 contract was closed at 19450 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from yesterday's settlement price, or 0.15%, while the 1209 contract was reported at 18745 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan, or 0.16%, compared with yesterday's settlement price.

The pattern of oversupply of cotton continued. According to the June report of the US Department of agriculture, stocks continued to increase at the end of next year and reached a record high.

It is estimated that the world's cotton production will reach 25 million 102 thousand tons in 2012/13, 23 million 734 thousand tons in the world and 16 million 222 thousand tons in the end of the world, which will be 170 thousand tons higher than the previous month, an increase of 1 million 560 thousand tons compared with 2011/12 and an increase of 10.6%.

The global inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 68.35% next year, up from 63.44% this year.

According to the report, it is estimated that China's next year's output will be 6 million 641 thousand tons, 8 million 709 thousand tons of consumption, 2 million 939 thousand tons of imports, and the stock will reach 6 million 815 thousand tons.

Cotton futures prices are suppressed in the medium and long term.

At present, the production situation of textile enterprises is serious, so it is not very active for enterprises to purchase cotton.

Downstream enterprises are more willing to import cheap cotton yarns abroad to meet production needs.

Export tax rebates will be adjusted next month.

Comment: in the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy announced today, although it did not talk about the specific tax rebates and the number of tax rebates, it can be understood from the lines that at present the export pressure is relatively large, the state's introduction of this measure is aimed at increasing the probability of export tax rebate, because it is good for textile and garment export enterprises.

The EU has sharply reduced the number of trade inclusive countries, and China is the first to bear the brunt.

Comment: the European Union is one of the regions where the export of Chinese textile and clothing is to be exported to the Chinese. The reduction of trade volume to China is bound to reduce the interests of domestic export enterprises. For its country, it is essentially a reflection of the means of trade sanctions against China. Under such circumstances, domestic preferential tax rates can help enterprises overcome difficulties and increase the export tax rebate probability further.

On strategy, buy more carefully.

Empty warehouse holders should not catch up with high purchases and establish empty lists at the end of confirmation bounce.