General Merchandise Industry Trend &Nbsp; 2012 Big Conjecture

In the first three quarters of last year, the total retail sales grew by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year.

Spring begins this year.

The cold wave struck, insiders said.

If there were still many people at the end of last year

What is the discount?

Conjecture 1

Traditional department stores enter the bottleneck stage?

In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of many department stores in Guangzhou declined, though not as large as that in the real estate market. However, for the department store industry that maintained a continuous turnover in the past four or five years, the decline in the number of digits was enough to alert the department stores.

Does the recent failure situation mean that the domestic department store industry is facing a new winter test? By the change of consumption demand, the traditional department store mode of single store development may have encountered bottlenecks. Next, I am afraid there will be a new round of elimination.

[expert view]

Huang Wenjie, executive director of Guangdong provincial Circulation Industry Association, believes that as the commercial real estate has become the focus of hot money investment, shopping centers and urban complexes are booming everywhere, and the overall business area has increased.

The most important thing is that consumer demand has also changed. The demand of consumers to shopping malls has changed from simple shopping to multi-functional support such as entertainment, catering, leisure and so on.

Therefore, the survival of traditional mono department stores has been faced with enormous challenges, and it can be said that it has entered a bottleneck period of development.

The phenomenon of Pacific department store, which expands by single store development mode, has been a warning bell for the development of traditional department stores in Beijing.

Conjecture 2

Can the "characteristic" differentiation road stand out?

Discount! Voucher! The staged promotion of the big show has long been the preserve of many businesses.

Last year, some department stores in Guangzhou were affected by the environmental impact of economic downturn. After the "cold spell" came, they were "good at themselves". Large-scale sales promotion not only led to "war" in advance, but also the strength of discount.

Year after year discount sale is bound to make consumers feel tired and numb.

In 2012, it seemed hard to attract consumers' attention by simply selling price cuts.

It can be expected that the price promotions in 2012 will continue, but the intensity or frequency will be slowed down.

Many industry experts say that the market is not good. Sales promotion is not the only way to improve the performance of the department stores. Long term discount sales will only make businesses less profitable and eventually usher in a real "cold wave".

[expert view]

Huang Wenjie believes that department stores through big sales promotion has played a certain role in stimulating sales, but after the discount phenomenon is daily, consumers will have "discount fatigue".

If consumption is still tight, then the killer of businesses will lose "sharpness". Successive promotions will not only maintain a fixed passenger flow for merchants, but also make gross profit margins continue to suffer.

Wang Xianqing, director of the Institute of circulation economics of Guangdong University of Business, thinks that discount sales promotion is a way of doing nothing. The special management can really keep customers.

The necessity of discount is because the retail industry is still in the extensive stage, the pressure of supplier inventory, business has not been realized, and it needs to change the space for the next year's production.

If the department stores sell customers in discounted sales for a long time, they can only kill each other in the end.

"The department store industry needs to break through the ice and still needs to innovate its profit model and take the road of differentiation."

Wang Xianqing said.

The increasing discount has begun to cause department stores to fall into the dilemma of losing profits and falling profits in the whole industry.

"The department store industry can not take the" discount sale "as its main marketing means for a long time. This will not only drag down the upstream and downstream related industries, but also consumers will have a conflict mentality and show the situation of weak consumption.

In the face of increasingly fierce commercial competition, we can try to attract customers through new ways such as experiential marketing and cultural marketing.

We can have more cultural elements in marketing, more urban civilization and more moral cultivation.

Reporters learned in the interview that faced with unpromising consumption prospects, the head of Wangfujing, modern department stores and Xinguang department stores in Guangzhou indicated that this year will introduce more distinctive store formats and improve the functional mix of shopping malls so as to boost passenger flow and improve performance.

At present, a number of shopping malls have reached a cooperation intention with many special brands around the country, and will enter the store in the form of counters.

In the two or three tier cities of Guangzhou suburbs and surrounding areas, the business investment environment is gradually improving, but its high-end market has not been completely released.

{page_break}

Conjecture 3

Luxury goods will be sought after by "Lao Guang"?

Guangzhou people have always been regarded as "heavy eating and heavy wear", pragmatic and low-key, and this has also been seen as the main reason why Guangzhou's luxury market has been neglected for many years.

Compared with Beijing and Shanghai, Guangzhou's luxury goods are hard to cultivate and form a market atmosphere, no matter the size of business and the number of brands.

However, from this year's "Spring Festival bill", it is easy to find that the consumption concept of Guangzhou people is slowly changing. In the case of no optimism in the overall retail environment, Guangzhou's luxury consumption is thriving.

On the one hand, young and consumptive consumer groups are getting bigger and bigger, and demand for brand and product design is bigger. On the other hand, many first-line brands have entered Guangzhou in 2011, and the emerging high-end market has already begun.

People in Guangzhou may be more willing to spend money on buying designer clothes, jewelry, handbags and cosmetics.

[expert view]

Huang Wenjie believes that luxury goods entering Guangzhou in large numbers will not be for no reason. They will not be stationed in any place, but because they see the capacity and Prospect of Guangzhou's luxury market, indicating that Guangzhou's luxury market and consumer groups are expanding rapidly.

This shows that the consumption of luxury goods in Guangzhou still needs a process of nurturing.

Generally speaking, it will take at least 2-3 years.

The development of Guangzhou's luxury consumer market can see its prospects through the growth of Tianhe City. Tianhe City has no popularity when it first opened. This is a process that consumers gradually realize and accept.

This number will gradually reduce, and it will turn to 70%, 60%, or even less.

Although it is unlikely that the last 100% of them will spend in Guangzhou, they will eventually retain many consumers.

Conjecture 4

First tier brands are concentrated in Guangzhou?

Last year, a large scale brand adjustment was launched in Guangzhou's shopping malls, with hundreds of new brands entering, many of which were first in Guangzhou.

Including the first line of world brands stationed in Swire, stationed in the best H&M, stationed in the ZARA of Wan Ling Hui.

In addition, with the gradual improvement of the consumption ability of the post-80s and 90s, the concept of "tide card" of minority tastes has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

Perhaps more new brands will come to Guangzhou in 2012.

[expert view]

Huang Wenjie believes that the new brand will accelerate the entry into the Guangzhou market. At present, there are still many mature brands in Europe and the United States not being stationed. The two or three line brands are also eager to enter, so the number and type of new brands will not be lost to 2011 in 2012, and will only be better.

Gao Jianguo, general manager of Huayi department store: Generally speaking, large enterprises will choose to enter the market when the economy is low. In 2012, the economy should continue to go down, so the first-line brand should increase its pace of entry and exit.

But for the two or three line brand of the small group, when the market is in the cold winter, it is necessary to go all the way to keep pace with the local market. Therefore, there is no such strength to enter Guangzhou in large scale.

80, 90 after becoming the protagonist of consumer groups, love trends, love brands, can they drive the sales of first-line brands?

The investment environment of Guangzhou's two or three tier cities is gradually improving. Will department stores expand outward?

The increasing discount has begun to cause the department store industry to be in a dilemma of declining profits. Will there be new marketing methods this year?

In recent years, the department store industry has been declining since last year, and the department stores have entered the bottleneck stage.

Does luxury mean that high-end department stores are more popular?