Fiscal Deposits Will Exceed Or Exceed 1 Trillion In The First Two Months Of This Year.

Help liquidity continue to improve, commercial banks exceed the storage rate is expected to rise

At the beginning of November, the capital side returned to prosperity, which verified the self repairing effect of liquidity during the stable period of policy. Although there are still some unfavorable factors in the year, the centralized release of fiscal deposits will continue to improve the liquidity of the banking system. According to CICC estimates, the amount of fiscal deposits will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 11-12 months.

At the end of 10, liquidity was quite tense. In November, the price of capital (1770.50,14.40,0.82%) was completely callback. The volatility of short-term domestic gold exposure not only exposes the liquidity is still fragile, but also reflects the effect of liquidity self repair.

10, at the end of the month, capital was tight. From the point of view of the reasons, it came from the superposition of the loan to deposit ratio assessment and the growth of fiscal deposits, which is similar to the situation in July. However, from the result, whether it is the time span of capital impulse or the price of capital Upstream The extent of this liquidity strain is far from that of July. In the situation that the net investment scale is not as large as the reserve requirement of large banks, the sudden loosening of funds at the beginning of November is also a reflection of the current capital side.

It is estimated that the overrun rate of commercial banks reached a low level of 0.8% in the end of August, and it has slowly recovered to about 1.5% by the end of October.

It can be confirmed that the capital market has already passed the most intense time.

Near the end of the year, the release of fiscal deposits will bring a lot of basic money. Put in 。 Judging from past experience, the central government's deposits are usually larger at the end of the year.

Statistics show that the surplus of the previous September budget exceeded 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan. Theoretically, if the budget deficit of 700 billion yuan is strictly implemented, the net fiscal expenditure in 10-12 months should reach 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan. In the past, Financial deposits were generally concentrated at the end of the year. According to CICC, the amount of fiscal deposits in 11-12 months will exceed 1 trillion yuan. At the beginning of November, after the last time the big bank made up the deposit reserve, the expansion of the quasi base expansion weakened the impact of the capital side. Even if the amount of foreign exchange and the amount of open market are likely to drop, Financial deposits should also support the continued improvement of liquidity in the banking system.

If future economic downside risks increase, it is not possible to eliminate the possibility of speeding up expenditure. CICC expects that the overtaking rate may rise significantly since November, and the seven day repo rate is expected. Fall back Between 3%-3.5%.