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Six Mistakes Often Committed By Investors

2010/12/6 17:17:00 49

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Investors?

They (even some fund managers) are prone to make six mistakes.


First, too much emphasis on one-time good or bad.

Recently, a certain

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It rose thirty percent, because the company suddenly discovered that the stock of another company held by it suddenly increased sharply.

The value of this asset alone is already higher than the total market value of the company.

That is to say, other businesses are free to investors.

"This stock is really cheap."

So everyone flocked in.

However, we did not expect that the main business of the company is still so careless that it has no future.

Besides, we forgot to ask the following three questions: will the company sell all the handheld stocks immediately? Even if it is sold, will it be fully paid? If it does not pay dividends, will the money be wasted by other dull businesses? There are many similar examples.

For example, a company has won a big contract and its share price has soared, and we forget to ask the real benefits and long-term sustainability of the contract.

One time tax concessions, falling costs (such as layoffs), or soaring prices of products are also frequently seen.

Investors?

As a perpetual advantage.

A successful M & A can be exaggerated by investors.

When we look at the market winning rate, we also overlook the current ratio, and forget the past ratio and the possible future ratio.

"The city government attaches great importance to a company" is often regarded as a good thing for investors.

However, it is easy for everyone to forget a great truth. A truly viable enterprise or industry is not afraid to suppress. Only bad companies and bad industries need support.

Moreover, support is not sustainable and amplifying. For example, this year, the government will subsidize one hundred million yuan, two hundred million yuan next year, and 300 million yuan the year after next.?


Second, we place too much emphasis on celebrity effects.

Because someone bought a certain celebrity.

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We'll buy it with him.

But the celebrity may not have done any research. Maybe this investment is a mistake (even Buffett made mistakes).

Sometimes, this investment may be wise, but for a variety of reasons, the stock fell thirty percent after three months, so we sold it.

And the celebrity insisted on holding two years and doubled.

In some IPO subscriptions, some celebrities face up to their face (or have a hot head) to subscribe for new shares, and retail investors are rushing ahead.


Third, we tend to forget business control capabilities.

The chairman or CEO of many listed companies in Hongkong often lives in Hongkong or meets with investors.

This is not a problem in itself.

The question is whether they will be out of line with the domestic business? Will they be disconnected from Latin America, Russia or Mongolia? If an enterprise's business is spread over several cities or even dozens of cities in the whole country, will the company's top executives live in Hongkong or Beijing or Xi'an?

The problem is that some senior officials are too concerned about share prices, and slowly forget their business, and business starts to slide.

The result of long term authorization is the establishment of an independent kingdom by its subordinates.

Last year, a company's headquarters in Hongkong decided to merge by another company.

The agreement just announced that the top Affiliated Companies executives began to rebel, and even the official seal would not be handed over, nor would they cooperate with the company's due diligence, or even the financial report would refuse to do so.

Also, some companies are listed on the back door, and the company has two skins.

Although they have internal communication, after all, it is a long time to speak on both sides.


Fourth, we like busy companies.

One company is busy: continuously issuing new stocks, bonds or convertible bonds, and distributing good cash dividends at the same time.

This is actually a game of tricks for investors, but many people are confused.

There is another kind of company that continues to annex and purchase, and after a year or two, it sells them again and again.

When buying, there are stories, and there are reasons for selling them.

Such a company's stock price will be higher than the quiet stock of the company.

Investors also have a preference: they prefer companies that love to move, while ignoring quiet companies like IPO and ignoring old ones.

It's like Hongkong residents like to buy new buildings instead of old ones.


Fifth, we expect too much, which leads to a low rate of return.

Theoretically, the medium and long-term returns of the stock market should be similar to that of the macro economy.

In today's age and the world, that is four percent to eight.

In fact, the returns of the US stock market, the Japanese stock market and many other stock markets have been negative in the past ten years.

The return of most funds in the past ten and 15 years is also very low.

Of course, everyone thinks he is smart and can be smarter than most people, but the results are not always satisfactory.

If you tell a retail investor, his medium and long-term return on investment can only be four percent to eight, he will be very unhappy, or laugh at you: it can not be so low!


Our expectations are too high, but the result is very poor.

When we buy stocks, we often have no time to improve the fundamentals of the company, or let the capital market recognize the advantages of the company.

For example, after half a year's stock market has not risen or even fallen, we begin to doubt our vision.

Besides, we are too apt to fall in love with other stocks, so we keep moving.

Studies have found that most stocks and markets in the long and medium term rise or fall are concentrated in a very short period of time (within a few days).

In other words, if you do not have patience, buy and sell, you will probably just miss those days.

Conversely, you may say that you may have just avoided the days when the stock market crashed.

But how do you know your luck is so good? I think of an interesting example: it is not easy to wait for taxis in Singapore.

I waited for ten minutes in some location, and I began to be impatient.

So he went to another intersection to take a chance.

But I just walked away, and the people who lined up behind me waited for the bus.

I waited ten minutes in the new location, and I still thought the taxi was too slow: maybe this position is not good.

After so many hours, I still did not wait until half an hour later, and those who had lined up behind me had already gone home.

Investment is like waiting for a taxi. It's like waiting for a rabbit.


Sixth, too credulous companies and experts.

Most investors have made this mistake.

We believe in the company's concept, story and media coverage, so investment is too reckless.

Company executives may lie.

Or, although they did not lie, they overestimated their abilities and underestimated the difficulties they faced.

Many investors lose money because they believe in stock analysts, analysts and the media.

These people may not have done serious research before expressing their opinions.

This is a brief summary of my recently published little book, the awakening of a securities analyst.


Note: This is definitely the author's personal view and does not mean his employer, UBS Investment Bank.

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